Recent polls place Donald Trump's job approval in the mid-to-high 30s as of mid-August 2026, with averages near 38 percent amid a stalemated conflict with Iran and persistent voter concerns over affordability and energy costs. Multiple surveys, including those from YouGov/Economist and the New York Times, show net approval at or near record lows for a second-term president, reflecting steady disapproval on foreign policy and the economy. The tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities around the 37.5–38.9 range reflects limited movement in recent data and the short window to August 21, leaving room for minor polling variance. Developments such as shifts in the Iran situation, new economic indicators, or campaign activity ahead of the midterms could quickly alter sentiment and widen the distribution across bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated38.0–38.4 35%
37.5–37.9 27%
38.5–38.9 23%
37.0–37.4 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
<37.0
4%
37.0–37.4
10%
37.5–37.9
27%
38.0–38.4
35%
38.5–38.9
23%
39.0+
9%
38.0–38.4 35%
37.5–37.9 27%
38.5–38.9 23%
37.0–37.4 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
<37.0
$34 Vol.
4%
37.0–37.4
$33 Vol.
10%
37.5–37.9
$40 Vol.
27%
38.0–38.4
$40 Vol.
35%
38.5–38.9
$40 Vol.
23%
39.0+
$20 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on August 21, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent polls place Donald Trump's job approval in the mid-to-high 30s as of mid-August 2026, with averages near 38 percent amid a stalemated conflict with Iran and persistent voter concerns over affordability and energy costs. Multiple surveys, including those from YouGov/Economist and the New York Times, show net approval at or near record lows for a second-term president, reflecting steady disapproval on foreign policy and the economy. The tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities around the 37.5–38.9 range reflects limited movement in recent data and the short window to August 21, leaving room for minor polling variance. Developments such as shifts in the Iran situation, new economic indicators, or campaign activity ahead of the midterms could quickly alter sentiment and widen the distribution across bins.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on August 21, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$207End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on August 21, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent polls place Donald Trump's job approval in the mid-to-high 30s as of mid-August 2026, with averages near 38 percent amid a stalemated conflict with Iran and persistent voter concerns over affordability and energy costs. Multiple surveys, including those from YouGov/Economist and the New York Times, show net approval at or near record lows for a second-term president, reflecting steady disapproval on foreign policy and the economy. The tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities around the 37.5–38.9 range reflects limited movement in recent data and the short window to August 21, leaving room for minor polling variance. Developments such as shifts in the Iran situation, new economic indicators, or campaign activity ahead of the midterms could quickly alter sentiment and widen the distribution across bins.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on August 21, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$207End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls place Donald Trump's job approval in the mid-to-high 30s as of mid-August 2026, with averages near 38 percent amid a stalemated conflict with Iran and persistent voter concerns over affordability and energy costs. Multiple surveys, including those from YouGov/Economist and the New York Times, show net approval at or near record lows for a second-term president, reflecting steady disapproval on foreign policy and the economy. The tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities around the 37.5–38.9 range reflects limited movement in recent data and the short window to August 21, leaving room for minor polling variance. Developments such as shifts in the Iran situation, new economic indicators, or campaign activity ahead of the midterms could quickly alter sentiment and widen the distribution across bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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