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UK predictions & odds

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Starmer out by...?

Starmer out by...?

78%

December 31

$23M Vol.

$2M today

$412K Liq.

1,454

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

24%

No Next PM in 2026

$6M Vol.

$272K today

$748K Liq.

78

Ends in 8 months

UK Cabinet Minister resigns by...?

UK Cabinet Minister resigns by...?

93%

June 30

$131K Vol.

$24.1K Liq.

54

Ends in about 2 months

Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?

Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?

23%

$20.1K Vol.

$6.5K Liq.

Ends in 17 days

UK GDP growth in Q1 2026?

UK GDP growth in Q1 2026?

50%

0.6-0.9%

$36.3K Vol.

$5.8K Liq.

Ends in about 4 hours

No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?

No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?

23%

$8.7K Vol.

$7.6K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

2026 United Kingdom Local Elections: 2nd Place

2026 United Kingdom Local Elections: 2nd Place

<1%

Reform

$244K Vol.

$3M Liq.

43

Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by...?

Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by...?

86%

May 31

$1.6K Vol.

$5.4K Liq.

1

Ends in 17 days

What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?

What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?

93%

Mr. Speaker 10+ times

$32.5K Vol.

$3.5K Liq.

16

Labour leadership election scheduled by ...?

Labour leadership election scheduled by ...?

77%

June 30

$65.4K Vol.

$2.0K Liq.

3

Ends in about 2 months

Bank of England decision in June?

Bank of England decision in June?

83%

No change

$103K Vol.

$24.9K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?

Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?

8%

$210K Vol.

$11.6K Liq.

35

Ends in 8 months

UK election called by...?

UK election called by...?

4%

June 30, 2026

$752K Vol.

$6.4K Liq.

14

Next First Minister of Scotland?

Next First Minister of Scotland?

99%

John Swinney

$11.1K Vol.

$23.0K Liq.

1

Precipitation in London in May?

Precipitation in London in May?

54%

30mm+

$1.8K Vol.

$820 Liq.

Ends in 17 days

UK Government approval Up or Down this week?

UK Government approval Up or Down this week?

67%

Up

$250 Vol.

$29 Liq.

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

31%

4.0-4.4%

$4.1K Vol.

$1.6K Liq.

1

Ends in 8 months

Will GBP/USD hit __ in 2026?

Will GBP/USD hit __ in 2026?

48%

↓1.25

$57.9K Vol.

$7.6K Liq.

1

Ends in 8 months

Will Kanye West visit the UK by June 30?

Will Kanye West visit the UK by June 30?

9%

$3.5K Vol.

$3.4K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Bank of England decision in July?

Bank of England decision in July?

76%

No change

$358 Vol.

$3.3K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like UK.

Polymarket currently hosts 20 active markets for UK that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Starmer out by...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $31.2M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Starmer out by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Starmer out by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 78% chance to December 31. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on UK predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.