Recent independent forecasts from the OECD, KPMG, British Chambers of Commerce, and HM Treasury averages place UK GDP growth for 2026 between 1.0% and 1.3%, aligning with the 76.6% market-implied probability for the 1-2% band. This consensus reflects resilient first-half activity, including 0.6% and 0.5% quarterly gains in Q1 and Q2, offset by persistent headwinds from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments that have lifted CPI inflation to 3.1% in August with further rises projected into year-end. The Bank of England’s decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% in September, amid weak labor demand and a margin of spare capacity, reinforces subdued momentum into 2027. Upcoming November MPC and data releases on inflation and employment could refine these probabilities if energy costs or wage trends shift materially.