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Economy predictions & odds

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Fed Decision in June?

Fed Decision in June?

98%

No change

$26M Vol.

$1M today

$3M Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

7%

$13M Vol.

$585K today

$501K Liq.

1

Ends in 17 days

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

70%

0 (0 bps)

$26M Vol.

$580K today

$1M Liq.

71

Ends in 8 months

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

<1%

$15M Vol.

$540K today

$2M Liq.

2

Ends in about 22 hours

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?

86%

December 31, 2026

$26M Vol.

$413K today

$163K Liq.

412

Largest Company end of June?

Largest Company end of June?

87%

NVIDIA

$12M Vol.

$208K today

$1M Liq.

80

Ends in about 2 months

Largest Company end of May?

Largest Company end of May?

95%

NVIDIA

$4M Vol.

$195K today

$1M Liq.

Ends in 17 days

How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?

How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?

100%

54

$242K Vol.

$175K today

$3M Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

32%

$5M Vol.

$153K today

$390K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Fed Decision in July?

Fed Decision in July?

92%

No change

$5M Vol.

$112K today

$633K Liq.

1

Ends in 3 months

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

76%

$100K Vol.

$134K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

How high will inflation get in 2026?
Economy·Inflation

How high will inflation get in 2026?

97%

Above 4%

$918K Vol.

$75.4K Liq.

28

Ends in 8 months

2nd largest company end of May?

2nd largest company end of May?

94%

Alphabet

$188K Vol.

$182K Liq.

Ends in 17 days

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

47%

20+

$375K Vol.

$45.7K Liq.

Ends in 17 days

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

46%

$63.0K Vol.

$115K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

97%

1.1m

$110K Vol.

$6.4K Liq.

7

Ends in 10 months

ECB Interest Rates: June 2026

ECB Interest Rates: June 2026

85%

25 bps Increase

$232K Vol.

$71.9K Liq.

Ends in 28 days

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

97%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$1M Vol.

$67.5K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

China Annual GDP Growth 2026
Economy·GDP

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

71%

4.0–5.0%

$519K Vol.

$131K Liq.

7

3rd largest company end of May?

3rd largest company end of May?

96%

Apple

$115K Vol.

$109K Liq.

Ends in 17 days

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Economy.

Polymarket currently hosts 20 active markets for Economy that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Fed Decision in June?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $136.9M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Fed Decision in June?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Fed Decision in June?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 98% chance to No change. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Economy predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.