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Economy·GDP

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

icon for Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026
Economy·GDP

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

Jan 31, 2027

Jan 31, 2027

1.0-2.0% 68%

3.0-4.0% 18.6%

0-1.0% 17.3%

2.0-3.0% 10%

Polymarket
NEW

1.0-2.0% 68%

3.0-4.0% 18.6%

0-1.0% 17.3%

2.0-3.0% 10%

Polymarket
NEW

<0%

$792 Vol.

15%

0-1.0%

$636 Vol.

17%

1.0-2.0%

$1,474 Vol.

68%

2.0-3.0%

$638 Vol.

10%

3.0-4.0%

$567 Vol.

19%

4.0-5.0%

$1,540 Vol.

4%

5.0-6.0%

$631 Vol.

2%

6.0-7.0%

$1,323 Vol.

1%

7.0%+

$1,110 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027. The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weak eurozone GDP data and downward forecast revisions are anchoring trader consensus around modest 2026 growth. First-quarter output rose just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 0.8% year-on-year, the slowest pace since mid-2025, after energy-supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict lifted oil prices and inflation risks. The ECB’s March projections now peg full-year expansion at 0.9%, with private-sector estimates clustered near 0.8–1.1%, reflecting tighter financial conditions and subdued domestic demand. These developments have lifted market-implied odds for the 1.0–2.0% band to 68% while compressing probabilities on ranges above 3% and below zero. Key upcoming catalysts include the June ECB policy meeting and May inflation prints that will clarify whether the energy shock remains transitory.

This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,712
End Date
Jan 31, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027. The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027. The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weak eurozone GDP data and downward forecast revisions are anchoring trader consensus around modest 2026 growth. First-quarter output rose just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 0.8% year-on-year, the slowest pace since mid-2025, after energy-supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict lifted oil prices and inflation risks. The ECB’s March projections now peg full-year expansion at 0.9%, with private-sector estimates clustered near 0.8–1.1%, reflecting tighter financial conditions and subdued domestic demand. These developments have lifted market-implied odds for the 1.0–2.0% band to 68% while compressing probabilities on ranges above 3% and below zero. Key upcoming catalysts include the June ECB policy meeting and May inflation prints that will clarify whether the energy shock remains transitory.

This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,712
End Date
Jan 31, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027. The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1.0-2.0%" at 68%, followed by "3.0-4.0%" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 68¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 68% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 22, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026" is "1.0-2.0%" at 68%, meaning the market assigns a 68% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3.0-4.0%" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.