Recent forecasts from the European Commission, OECD, ECB, and Vanguard converge on Euro area GDP growth of 0.8–1.1% for 2026, aligning closely with the market’s 71.6% probability on the 0–1.0% bucket. An energy-price shock tied to Middle East tensions has lifted headline inflation toward 3.0–3.2% and prompted the ECB to raise its deposit facility rate to 2.40% in June, with a subsequent hold in July. Q2 GDP expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, yet the annual outlook remains subdued as higher borrowing costs and weaker business confidence weigh on investment and consumption. A provisional Iran–U.S. de-escalation has eased some near-term energy risks, but persistently elevated inflation keeps monetary policy on hold, capping upside to the 1.0–2.0% range priced at just 25%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0-1.0% 72.0%
1.0-2.0% 22%
4.0-5.0% 4.0%
<0% 2.2%
$30,355 Vol.
$30,355 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
<0%
2%
0-1.0%
72%
1.0-2.0%
22%
2.0-3.0%
2%
3.0-4.0%
<1%
4.0-5.0%
4%
5.0-6.0%
<1%
6.0-7.0%
<1%
7.0%+
1%
0-1.0% 72.0%
1.0-2.0% 22%
4.0-5.0% 4.0%
<0% 2.2%
$30,355 Vol.
$30,355 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
<0%
$1,672 Vol.
2%
0-1.0%
$11,512 Vol.
72%
1.0-2.0%
$7,131 Vol.
22%
2.0-3.0%
$1,180 Vol.
2%
3.0-4.0%
$1,096 Vol.
<1%
4.0-5.0%
$2,203 Vol.
4%
5.0-6.0%
$1,185 Vol.
<1%
6.0-7.0%
$2,648 Vol.
<1%
7.0%+
$1,728 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the European Commission, OECD, ECB, and Vanguard converge on Euro area GDP growth of 0.8–1.1% for 2026, aligning closely with the market’s 71.6% probability on the 0–1.0% bucket. An energy-price shock tied to Middle East tensions has lifted headline inflation toward 3.0–3.2% and prompted the ECB to raise its deposit facility rate to 2.40% in June, with a subsequent hold in July. Q2 GDP expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, yet the annual outlook remains subdued as higher borrowing costs and weaker business confidence weigh on investment and consumption. A provisional Iran–U.S. de-escalation has eased some near-term energy risks, but persistently elevated inflation keeps monetary policy on hold, capping upside to the 1.0–2.0% range priced at just 25%.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$30,355End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the European Commission, OECD, ECB, and Vanguard converge on Euro area GDP growth of 0.8–1.1% for 2026, aligning closely with the market’s 71.6% probability on the 0–1.0% bucket. An energy-price shock tied to Middle East tensions has lifted headline inflation toward 3.0–3.2% and prompted the ECB to raise its deposit facility rate to 2.40% in June, with a subsequent hold in July. Q2 GDP expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, yet the annual outlook remains subdued as higher borrowing costs and weaker business confidence weigh on investment and consumption. A provisional Iran–U.S. de-escalation has eased some near-term energy risks, but persistently elevated inflation keeps monetary policy on hold, capping upside to the 1.0–2.0% range priced at just 25%.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$30,355End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent forecasts from the European Commission, OECD, ECB, and Vanguard converge on Euro area GDP growth of 0.8–1.1% for 2026, aligning closely with the market’s 71.6% probability on the 0–1.0% bucket. An energy-price shock tied to Middle East tensions has lifted headline inflation toward 3.0–3.2% and prompted the ECB to raise its deposit facility rate to 2.40% in June, with a subsequent hold in July. Q2 GDP expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, yet the annual outlook remains subdued as higher borrowing costs and weaker business confidence weigh on investment and consumption. A provisional Iran–U.S. de-escalation has eased some near-term energy risks, but persistently elevated inflation keeps monetary policy on hold, capping upside to the 1.0–2.0% range priced at just 25%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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