This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.April 2026 Consumer Price Index data revealed year-over-year inflation accelerating to 3.8%, the highest since May 2023 and up from 3.3% in March, propelled by a 3.8% monthly surge in energy prices amid disruptions from the Iran conflict affecting Middle Eastern oil supplies. Core inflation excluding food and energy also ticked higher, signaling broad-based pressures despite the Fed's 2% target. Boston Fed President Collins warned of potential rate hikes to tame persistent inflation, with market-implied paths showing no cuts through year-end amid sticky labor markets and elevated Treasury yields. Traders watch May CPI on June 10 and PCE data on May 28 for clues on peak 2026 readings, with forecasts ranging from 3-5% amid geopolitical risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
April 2026 Consumer Price Index data revealed year-over-year inflation accelerating to 3.8%, the highest since May 2023 and up from 3.3% in March, propelled by a 3.8% monthly surge in energy prices amid disruptions from the Iran conflict affecting Middle Eastern oil supplies. Core inflation excluding food and energy also ticked higher, signaling broad-based pressures despite the Fed's 2% target. Boston Fed President Collins warned of potential rate hikes to tame persistent inflation, with market-implied paths showing no cuts through year-end amid sticky labor markets and elevated Treasury yields. Traders watch May CPI on June 10 and PCE data on May 28 for clues on peak 2026 readings, with forecasts ranging from 3-5% amid geopolitical risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
May 12 2026
Wendy’s launches $4 Biggie Deals menu amid rising food prices
Above 4% surges to 97%23%
Wendy’s introduced a new value menu to attract cost-conscious consumers facing rising grocery and food prices, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures and influencing market expectations for inflation above 4%.
May 5 2026
PepsiCo announces price cuts amid weakening demand due to inflation
Above 5% jumps to 35%7%
PepsiCo cut prices on popular snack products to regain customers frustrated by years of price hikes, signaling consumer sensitivity to inflation and impacting market inflation expectations, particularly for higher inflation outcomes.
Apr 15 2026
U.S. wholesale prices surge as Iran war escalates energy costs
Above 4% jumps to 48%7%
In April 2026, wholesale prices surged 4% year-over-year, driven by an 8.5% increase in energy prices due to the Iran war. This surge heightened inflation concerns and influenced market pricing for inflation above 4%.
Mar 10 2026
Popular super greens supplement recalled amid salmonella outbreak
Above 4% surges to 33%18%
The recall of a popular dietary supplement due to salmonella contamination raised concerns about food safety and potential impacts on food prices, contributing to inflation uncertainty and affecting market inflation expectations.
Feb 25 2026
Iran war drives up U.S. wholesale energy prices sharply
Above 4% rises to 15%3%
The ongoing war in Iran caused energy prices to surge, pushing wholesale prices up 4% year-over-year in March 2026. This increase in energy costs contributed to inflationary pressures, raising market expectations for inflation outcomes above 4%.
Jan 15 2026
Consumer spending drives U.S. economy growth at fastest pace in two years
Above 4% surges to 33%19%
The Commerce Department reported a 4.4% annualized GDP growth rate in Q3 2025, driven by strong consumer spending. Despite solid growth, inflation remained elevated, influencing market expectations that inflation would stay above 4%.
Dec 9 2025
Government shutdown delays January jobs report and other economic data
Above 4% dips to 14%4%
The partial federal government shutdown delayed the release of key economic data including the January jobs report, creating uncertainty about the labor market and inflation trends. This delay contributed to market volatility and cautious inflation expectations.
Nov 13 2025
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates three times to counter softer jobs market
Above 4% plunges to 18%29%
In late 2025, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate three times to stimulate the economy amid a slowing labor market. This monetary policy action aimed to support growth but raised concerns about potential inflationary pressures, influencing market expectations for inflation to remain elevated.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.April 2026 Consumer Price Index data revealed year-over-year inflation accelerating to 3.8%, the highest since May 2023 and up from 3.3% in March, propelled by a 3.8% monthly surge in energy prices amid disruptions from the Iran conflict affecting Middle Eastern oil supplies. Core inflation excluding food and energy also ticked higher, signaling broad-based pressures despite the Fed's 2% target. Boston Fed President Collins warned of potential rate hikes to tame persistent inflation, with market-implied paths showing no cuts through year-end amid sticky labor markets and elevated Treasury yields. Traders watch May CPI on June 10 and PCE data on May 28 for clues on peak 2026 readings, with forecasts ranging from 3-5% amid geopolitical risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
April 2026 Consumer Price Index data revealed year-over-year inflation accelerating to 3.8%, the highest since May 2023 and up from 3.3% in March, propelled by a 3.8% monthly surge in energy prices amid disruptions from the Iran conflict affecting Middle Eastern oil supplies. Core inflation excluding food and energy also ticked higher, signaling broad-based pressures despite the Fed's 2% target. Boston Fed President Collins warned of potential rate hikes to tame persistent inflation, with market-implied paths showing no cuts through year-end amid sticky labor markets and elevated Treasury yields. Traders watch May CPI on June 10 and PCE data on May 28 for clues on peak 2026 readings, with forecasts ranging from 3-5% amid geopolitical risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
May 12 2026
Wendy’s launches $4 Biggie Deals menu amid rising food prices
Above 4% surges to 97%23%
Wendy’s introduced a new value menu to attract cost-conscious consumers facing rising grocery and food prices, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures and influencing market expectations for inflation above 4%.
May 5 2026
PepsiCo announces price cuts amid weakening demand due to inflation
Above 5% jumps to 35%7%
PepsiCo cut prices on popular snack products to regain customers frustrated by years of price hikes, signaling consumer sensitivity to inflation and impacting market inflation expectations, particularly for higher inflation outcomes.
Apr 15 2026
U.S. wholesale prices surge as Iran war escalates energy costs
Above 4% jumps to 48%7%
In April 2026, wholesale prices surged 4% year-over-year, driven by an 8.5% increase in energy prices due to the Iran war. This surge heightened inflation concerns and influenced market pricing for inflation above 4%.
Mar 10 2026
Popular super greens supplement recalled amid salmonella outbreak
Above 4% surges to 33%18%
The recall of a popular dietary supplement due to salmonella contamination raised concerns about food safety and potential impacts on food prices, contributing to inflation uncertainty and affecting market inflation expectations.
Feb 25 2026
Iran war drives up U.S. wholesale energy prices sharply
Above 4% rises to 15%3%
The ongoing war in Iran caused energy prices to surge, pushing wholesale prices up 4% year-over-year in March 2026. This increase in energy costs contributed to inflationary pressures, raising market expectations for inflation outcomes above 4%.
Jan 15 2026
Consumer spending drives U.S. economy growth at fastest pace in two years
Above 4% surges to 33%19%
The Commerce Department reported a 4.4% annualized GDP growth rate in Q3 2025, driven by strong consumer spending. Despite solid growth, inflation remained elevated, influencing market expectations that inflation would stay above 4%.
Dec 9 2025
Government shutdown delays January jobs report and other economic data
Above 4% dips to 14%4%
The partial federal government shutdown delayed the release of key economic data including the January jobs report, creating uncertainty about the labor market and inflation trends. This delay contributed to market volatility and cautious inflation expectations.
Nov 13 2025
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates three times to counter softer jobs market
Above 4% plunges to 18%29%
In late 2025, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate three times to stimulate the economy amid a slowing labor market. This monetary policy action aimed to support growth but raised concerns about potential inflationary pressures, influencing market expectations for inflation to remain elevated.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions
"How high will inflation get in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Above 3%" at 100%, followed by "Above 3.5%" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "How high will inflation get in 2026?" has generated $917.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "How high will inflation get in 2026?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "How high will inflation get in 2026?" is "Above 3%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Above 3.5%" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "How high will inflation get in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "How high will inflation get in 2026?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $917.9K traded on “How high will inflation get in 2026?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "How high will inflation get in 2026?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "Above 3%" in the "How high will inflation get in 2026?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "Above 3%" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "How high will inflation get in 2026?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
The "How high will inflation get in 2026?" market has an active community of 28 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "How high will inflation get in 2026?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions