Recent upside surprises in South African CPI, including the June 2026 print rising to 5.0% year-over-year from 4.5% in May amid sharp fuel and transportation cost increases tied to elevated global energy prices, have anchored trader focus on the 4.1-4.7% range for full-year average inflation. The South African Reserve Bank’s May 2026 forecast of 4.4% average headline inflation, alongside its shift to a 3% point target with a +/-1% band and subsequent policy rate hikes, supports market-implied odds clustered around these bins as participants weigh persistent services and core pressures against potential moderation from a firmer rand and easing food costs. With leading outcomes closely matched, sentiment hinges on upcoming monthly CPI releases, the trajectory of oil prices, and SARB communications through year-end, where even modest deviations in data could shift probabilities within the contested mid-4% territory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSouth Africa Annual Inflation 2026
South Africa Annual Inflation 2026
4.1-4.4% 29.8%
4.4-4.7% 22.1%
3.8-4.1% 13.2%
4.7-5.0% 8.9%
$39,549 Vol.
$39,549 Vol.
Jan 20, 2027
<2.6%
<1%
2.6-2.9%
<1%
2.9-3.2%
3%
3.2-3.5%
3%
3.5-3.8%
4%
3.8-4.1%
13%
4.1-4.4%
30%
4.4-4.7%
22%
4.7-5.0%
9%
>5.0%
9%
4.1-4.4% 29.8%
4.4-4.7% 22.1%
3.8-4.1% 13.2%
4.7-5.0% 8.9%
$39,549 Vol.
$39,549 Vol.
Jan 20, 2027
<2.6%
$1,219 Vol.
<1%
2.6-2.9%
$1,854 Vol.
<1%
2.9-3.2%
$1,564 Vol.
3%
3.2-3.5%
$1,245 Vol.
3%
3.5-3.8%
$1,798 Vol.
4%
3.8-4.1%
$2,832 Vol.
13%
4.1-4.4%
$2,588 Vol.
30%
4.4-4.7%
$14,940 Vol.
22%
4.7-5.0%
$3,272 Vol.
9%
>5.0%
$8,236 Vol.
9%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Recent upside surprises in South African CPI, including the June 2026 print rising to 5.0% year-over-year from 4.5% in May amid sharp fuel and transportation cost increases tied to elevated global energy prices, have anchored trader focus on the 4.1-4.7% range for full-year average inflation. The South African Reserve Bank’s May 2026 forecast of 4.4% average headline inflation, alongside its shift to a 3% point target with a +/-1% band and subsequent policy rate hikes, supports market-implied odds clustered around these bins as participants weigh persistent services and core pressures against potential moderation from a firmer rand and easing food costs. With leading outcomes closely matched, sentiment hinges on upcoming monthly CPI releases, the trajectory of oil prices, and SARB communications through year-end, where even modest deviations in data could shift probabilities within the contested mid-4% territory.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Market Opened: Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Volume
$39,549End Date
Jan 20, 2027Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Recent upside surprises in South African CPI, including the June 2026 print rising to 5.0% year-over-year from 4.5% in May amid sharp fuel and transportation cost increases tied to elevated global energy prices, have anchored trader focus on the 4.1-4.7% range for full-year average inflation. The South African Reserve Bank’s May 2026 forecast of 4.4% average headline inflation, alongside its shift to a 3% point target with a +/-1% band and subsequent policy rate hikes, supports market-implied odds clustered around these bins as participants weigh persistent services and core pressures against potential moderation from a firmer rand and easing food costs. With leading outcomes closely matched, sentiment hinges on upcoming monthly CPI releases, the trajectory of oil prices, and SARB communications through year-end, where even modest deviations in data could shift probabilities within the contested mid-4% territory.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Volume
$39,549End Date
Jan 20, 2027Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent upside surprises in South African CPI, including the June 2026 print rising to 5.0% year-over-year from 4.5% in May amid sharp fuel and transportation cost increases tied to elevated global energy prices, have anchored trader focus on the 4.1-4.7% range for full-year average inflation. The South African Reserve Bank’s May 2026 forecast of 4.4% average headline inflation, alongside its shift to a 3% point target with a +/-1% band and subsequent policy rate hikes, supports market-implied odds clustered around these bins as participants weigh persistent services and core pressures against potential moderation from a firmer rand and easing food costs. With leading outcomes closely matched, sentiment hinges on upcoming monthly CPI releases, the trajectory of oil prices, and SARB communications through year-end, where even modest deviations in data could shift probabilities within the contested mid-4% territory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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