Recent fuel price surges tied to geopolitical tensions, including disruptions linked to the Iran conflict, have pushed South African Reserve Bank (SARB) forecasts for 2026 headline inflation to 4.4%, with expectations that the rate will exceed 5% in late 2026 before easing toward the 3% target by end-2027. The SARB raised its policy rate 25 basis points to 7.25% in September, citing risks of second-round effects, while August CPI printed at 4.4% year-over-year—below consensus—driven by transport and housing components. Trader-implied odds cluster in the 4.4–5.0% range, reflecting uncertainty over oil trajectory, core inflation stability at 4.1%, and the October 21 CPI release as key swing factors amid subdued 1.2% GDP growth projections.