Recent easing in Mexico’s headline inflation to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026—the lowest since May 2020—has anchored trader sentiment around the 3.0-4.0% range for the full-year 2026 figure. Banxico’s decision to hold the benchmark rate at 6.50% reflects progress toward the 3% target while acknowledging upside risks from global trade policies and geopolitical factors. Core inflation remains elevated near 3.95%, and the central bank projects convergence to target only in late 2027. With the next CPI release and policy meeting approaching, the fragmented probabilities across bands underscore uncertainty over whether momentum toward sub-3.5% readings will persist through year-end amid soft growth and potential external shocks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.50% to 3.99% 34.4%
3.00% to 3.49% 22.0%
4.00% to 4.49% 16%
4.50% to 4.99% 9%
$61,390 Vol.
$61,390 Vol.
Jan 8, 2027
<2.50%
1%
2.50% to 2.99%
5%
3.00% to 3.49%
22%
3.50% to 3.99%
34%
4.00% to 4.49%
16%
4.50% to 4.99%
9%
5.00% to 5.49%
7%
5.50%+
3%
3.50% to 3.99% 34.4%
3.00% to 3.49% 22.0%
4.00% to 4.49% 16%
4.50% to 4.99% 9%
$61,390 Vol.
$61,390 Vol.
Jan 8, 2027
<2.50%
$1,053 Vol.
1%
2.50% to 2.99%
$4,887 Vol.
5%
3.00% to 3.49%
$27,482 Vol.
22%
3.50% to 3.99%
$3,789 Vol.
34%
4.00% to 4.49%
$10,689 Vol.
16%
4.50% to 4.99%
$4,745 Vol.
9%
5.00% to 5.49%
$2,439 Vol.
7%
5.50%+
$6,305 Vol.
3%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent easing in Mexico’s headline inflation to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026—the lowest since May 2020—has anchored trader sentiment around the 3.0-4.0% range for the full-year 2026 figure. Banxico’s decision to hold the benchmark rate at 6.50% reflects progress toward the 3% target while acknowledging upside risks from global trade policies and geopolitical factors. Core inflation remains elevated near 3.95%, and the central bank projects convergence to target only in late 2027. With the next CPI release and policy meeting approaching, the fragmented probabilities across bands underscore uncertainty over whether momentum toward sub-3.5% readings will persist through year-end amid soft growth and potential external shocks.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$61,390End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent easing in Mexico’s headline inflation to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026—the lowest since May 2020—has anchored trader sentiment around the 3.0-4.0% range for the full-year 2026 figure. Banxico’s decision to hold the benchmark rate at 6.50% reflects progress toward the 3% target while acknowledging upside risks from global trade policies and geopolitical factors. Core inflation remains elevated near 3.95%, and the central bank projects convergence to target only in late 2027. With the next CPI release and policy meeting approaching, the fragmented probabilities across bands underscore uncertainty over whether momentum toward sub-3.5% readings will persist through year-end amid soft growth and potential external shocks.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$61,390End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent easing in Mexico’s headline inflation to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026—the lowest since May 2020—has anchored trader sentiment around the 3.0-4.0% range for the full-year 2026 figure. Banxico’s decision to hold the benchmark rate at 6.50% reflects progress toward the 3% target while acknowledging upside risks from global trade policies and geopolitical factors. Core inflation remains elevated near 3.95%, and the central bank projects convergence to target only in late 2027. With the next CPI release and policy meeting approaching, the fragmented probabilities across bands underscore uncertainty over whether momentum toward sub-3.5% readings will persist through year-end amid soft growth and potential external shocks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions