Recent easing in Mexico’s headline inflation to 4.45% year-over-year in April 2026, down from 4.59% in March and below consensus, has narrowed the market-implied odds between the 4.00–4.49% and 4.50–4.99% buckets to within one percentage point. Banco de México’s May rate cut to 6.50% and its survey of economists lifting the year-end 2026 forecast to 4.37% reflect persistent core pressures and economic slack, while forward guidance anticipates convergence toward the 2–4% target range. Upcoming monthly CPI releases and any shifts in global energy prices remain the key swing factors that could tilt sentiment toward the 5.50%+ or sub-4.00% outcomes before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.50% to 4.99% 36%
4.00% to 4.49% 22%
5.00% to 5.49% 18.4%
3.50% to 3.99% 16.2%
$41,183 Vol.
$41,183 Vol.
Jan 8, 2027
<2.50%
5%
2.50% to 2.99%
<1%
3.00% to 3.49%
7%
3.50% to 3.99%
9%
4.00% to 4.49%
34%
4.50% to 4.99%
36%
5.00% to 5.49%
18%
5.50%+
28%
4.50% to 4.99% 36%
4.00% to 4.49% 22%
5.00% to 5.49% 18.4%
3.50% to 3.99% 16.2%
$41,183 Vol.
$41,183 Vol.
Jan 8, 2027
<2.50%
$494 Vol.
5%
2.50% to 2.99%
$4,120 Vol.
<1%
3.00% to 3.49%
$25,948 Vol.
7%
3.50% to 3.99%
$396 Vol.
9%
4.00% to 4.49%
$493 Vol.
34%
4.50% to 4.99%
$3,538 Vol.
36%
5.00% to 5.49%
$1,175 Vol.
18%
5.50%+
$5,020 Vol.
28%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent easing in Mexico’s headline inflation to 4.45% year-over-year in April 2026, down from 4.59% in March and below consensus, has narrowed the market-implied odds between the 4.00–4.49% and 4.50–4.99% buckets to within one percentage point. Banco de México’s May rate cut to 6.50% and its survey of economists lifting the year-end 2026 forecast to 4.37% reflect persistent core pressures and economic slack, while forward guidance anticipates convergence toward the 2–4% target range. Upcoming monthly CPI releases and any shifts in global energy prices remain the key swing factors that could tilt sentiment toward the 5.50%+ or sub-4.00% outcomes before year-end resolution.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$41,183End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent easing in Mexico’s headline inflation to 4.45% year-over-year in April 2026, down from 4.59% in March and below consensus, has narrowed the market-implied odds between the 4.00–4.49% and 4.50–4.99% buckets to within one percentage point. Banco de México’s May rate cut to 6.50% and its survey of economists lifting the year-end 2026 forecast to 4.37% reflect persistent core pressures and economic slack, while forward guidance anticipates convergence toward the 2–4% target range. Upcoming monthly CPI releases and any shifts in global energy prices remain the key swing factors that could tilt sentiment toward the 5.50%+ or sub-4.00% outcomes before year-end resolution.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$41,183End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent easing in Mexico’s headline inflation to 4.45% year-over-year in April 2026, down from 4.59% in March and below consensus, has narrowed the market-implied odds between the 4.00–4.49% and 4.50–4.99% buckets to within one percentage point. Banco de México’s May rate cut to 6.50% and its survey of economists lifting the year-end 2026 forecast to 4.37% reflect persistent core pressures and economic slack, while forward guidance anticipates convergence toward the 2–4% target range. Upcoming monthly CPI releases and any shifts in global energy prices remain the key swing factors that could tilt sentiment toward the 5.50%+ or sub-4.00% outcomes before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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