Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 92.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by April 2026 CPI accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March amid energy price surges—and April nonfarm payrolls adding a modest 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. These developments, following the Federal Reserve's April decision to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75%, signal persistent inflation alongside labor market resilience, curtailing rate cut or hike expectations. Upside risks to this consensus include hotter May CPI (due June 10) or weakening June payrolls, potentially elevating 25 basis point adjustment odds above 5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 93%
25 bps decrease 4.3%
25 bps increase 2.9%
50+ bps decrease 1.1%
$5,363,021 Vol.
$5,363,021 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
93%
25 bps increase
3%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 93%
25 bps decrease 4.3%
25 bps increase 2.9%
50+ bps decrease 1.1%
$5,363,021 Vol.
$5,363,021 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$511,673 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$398,361 Vol.
4%
No change
$622,522 Vol.
93%
25 bps increase
$3,363,899 Vol.
3%
50+ bps increase
$466,566 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 92.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by April 2026 CPI accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March amid energy price surges—and April nonfarm payrolls adding a modest 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. These developments, following the Federal Reserve's April decision to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75%, signal persistent inflation alongside labor market resilience, curtailing rate cut or hike expectations. Upside risks to this consensus include hotter May CPI (due June 10) or weakening June payrolls, potentially elevating 25 basis point adjustment odds above 5%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$5,363,021End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 92.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by April 2026 CPI accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March amid energy price surges—and April nonfarm payrolls adding a modest 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. These developments, following the Federal Reserve's April decision to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75%, signal persistent inflation alongside labor market resilience, curtailing rate cut or hike expectations. Upside risks to this consensus include hotter May CPI (due June 10) or weakening June payrolls, potentially elevating 25 basis point adjustment odds above 5%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$5,363,021End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 92.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by April 2026 CPI accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March amid energy price surges—and April nonfarm payrolls adding a modest 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. These developments, following the Federal Reserve's April decision to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75%, signal persistent inflation alongside labor market resilience, curtailing rate cut or hike expectations. Upside risks to this consensus include hotter May CPI (due June 10) or weakening June payrolls, potentially elevating 25 basis point adjustment odds above 5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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