The primary driver of trader sentiment around a potential Federal Reserve rate hike is the tension between above-target inflation and a resilient labor market, with the July 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% passing on a divided 9-3 vote. Three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase highlighted concerns over June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year—still well above the 2% goal—and supply shocks from Middle East energy disruptions that have kept core measures elevated near 2.6%. Markets now assign meaningful implied probability to a September 15-16 hike, reflecting updated Fed dot-plot signals and firmer inflation nowcasts. Key upcoming catalysts include the August 12 CPI release and September FOMC projections, which could shift expectations if headline readings moderate or energy prices stabilize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,136,908 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
September Meeting
41%
October Meeting
50%
$2,136,908 Vol.
September Meeting
$761,108 Vol.
41%
October Meeting
$415,801 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The primary driver of trader sentiment around a potential Federal Reserve rate hike is the tension between above-target inflation and a resilient labor market, with the July 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% passing on a divided 9-3 vote. Three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase highlighted concerns over June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year—still well above the 2% goal—and supply shocks from Middle East energy disruptions that have kept core measures elevated near 2.6%. Markets now assign meaningful implied probability to a September 15-16 hike, reflecting updated Fed dot-plot signals and firmer inflation nowcasts. Key upcoming catalysts include the August 12 CPI release and September FOMC projections, which could shift expectations if headline readings moderate or energy prices stabilize.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,136,908End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The primary driver of trader sentiment around a potential Federal Reserve rate hike is the tension between above-target inflation and a resilient labor market, with the July 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% passing on a divided 9-3 vote. Three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase highlighted concerns over June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year—still well above the 2% goal—and supply shocks from Middle East energy disruptions that have kept core measures elevated near 2.6%. Markets now assign meaningful implied probability to a September 15-16 hike, reflecting updated Fed dot-plot signals and firmer inflation nowcasts. Key upcoming catalysts include the August 12 CPI release and September FOMC projections, which could shift expectations if headline readings moderate or energy prices stabilize.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,136,908End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The primary driver of trader sentiment around a potential Federal Reserve rate hike is the tension between above-target inflation and a resilient labor market, with the July 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% passing on a divided 9-3 vote. Three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase highlighted concerns over June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year—still well above the 2% goal—and supply shocks from Middle East energy disruptions that have kept core measures elevated near 2.6%. Markets now assign meaningful implied probability to a September 15-16 hike, reflecting updated Fed dot-plot signals and firmer inflation nowcasts. Key upcoming catalysts include the August 12 CPI release and September FOMC projections, which could shift expectations if headline readings moderate or energy prices stabilize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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