The April 2026 Consumer Price Index surged to 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March and the highest since May 2023—driving Polymarket trader consensus toward modestly higher implied probabilities for a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, with odds concentrating on September and October FOMC meetings around 16-17%. The Fed maintained its federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 28-29 policy session amid an 8-4 vote split signaling hawkish dissent, as inflation remains elevated despite cooling job gains. CME FedWatch Tool now prices roughly 37% odds of a hike before year-end, up post-CPI, while June 16-17 meeting expectations favor a hold at over 97%. Traders eye May nonfarm payrolls and upcoming inflation prints for resolution signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$147,977 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
June Meeting
2%
July Meeting
6%
September Meeting
19%
October Meeting
28%
$147,977 Vol.
June Meeting
$14,453 Vol.
2%
July Meeting
$770 Vol.
6%
September Meeting
$49 Vol.
19%
October Meeting
$1,397 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The April 2026 Consumer Price Index surged to 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March and the highest since May 2023—driving Polymarket trader consensus toward modestly higher implied probabilities for a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, with odds concentrating on September and October FOMC meetings around 16-17%. The Fed maintained its federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 28-29 policy session amid an 8-4 vote split signaling hawkish dissent, as inflation remains elevated despite cooling job gains. CME FedWatch Tool now prices roughly 37% odds of a hike before year-end, up post-CPI, while June 16-17 meeting expectations favor a hold at over 97%. Traders eye May nonfarm payrolls and upcoming inflation prints for resolution signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$147,977End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The April 2026 Consumer Price Index surged to 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March and the highest since May 2023—driving Polymarket trader consensus toward modestly higher implied probabilities for a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, with odds concentrating on September and October FOMC meetings around 16-17%. The Fed maintained its federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 28-29 policy session amid an 8-4 vote split signaling hawkish dissent, as inflation remains elevated despite cooling job gains. CME FedWatch Tool now prices roughly 37% odds of a hike before year-end, up post-CPI, while June 16-17 meeting expectations favor a hold at over 97%. Traders eye May nonfarm payrolls and upcoming inflation prints for resolution signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$147,977End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The April 2026 Consumer Price Index surged to 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March and the highest since May 2023—driving Polymarket trader consensus toward modestly higher implied probabilities for a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, with odds concentrating on September and October FOMC meetings around 16-17%. The Fed maintained its federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 28-29 policy session amid an 8-4 vote split signaling hawkish dissent, as inflation remains elevated despite cooling job gains. CME FedWatch Tool now prices roughly 37% odds of a hike before year-end, up post-CPI, while June 16-17 meeting expectations favor a hold at over 97%. Traders eye May nonfarm payrolls and upcoming inflation prints for resolution signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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