Recent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year alongside supply disruptions from Middle East tensions have kept the federal funds rate anchored at 3.50-3.75% through the June and July FOMC meetings, supporting the 59.5% market-implied probability of unchanged policy across the June-July-September sequence. The July decision featured a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, reflecting internal divisions and prompting futures markets to price elevated odds of a September move higher even as June CPI softened modestly. Resilient labor market data, solid GDP expansion, and the absence of clear disinflation momentum have reinforced trader consensus for a hold through the September 15-16 meeting, though the upcoming August CPI release and any escalation in geopolitical pressures remain key swing factors that could shift the path embedded in the 40.5% "Other" bucket.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPause–Pause–Pause 60%
Other 39%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.4%
$717,409 Vol.
$717,409 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
60%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
39%
Pause–Pause–Pause 60%
Other 39%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.4%
$717,409 Vol.
$717,409 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$286,408 Vol.
60%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$67,198 Vol.
1%
Other
$307,927 Vol.
39%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year alongside supply disruptions from Middle East tensions have kept the federal funds rate anchored at 3.50-3.75% through the June and July FOMC meetings, supporting the 59.5% market-implied probability of unchanged policy across the June-July-September sequence. The July decision featured a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, reflecting internal divisions and prompting futures markets to price elevated odds of a September move higher even as June CPI softened modestly. Resilient labor market data, solid GDP expansion, and the absence of clear disinflation momentum have reinforced trader consensus for a hold through the September 15-16 meeting, though the upcoming August CPI release and any escalation in geopolitical pressures remain key swing factors that could shift the path embedded in the 40.5% "Other" bucket.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$717,409End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year alongside supply disruptions from Middle East tensions have kept the federal funds rate anchored at 3.50-3.75% through the June and July FOMC meetings, supporting the 59.5% market-implied probability of unchanged policy across the June-July-September sequence. The July decision featured a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, reflecting internal divisions and prompting futures markets to price elevated odds of a September move higher even as June CPI softened modestly. Resilient labor market data, solid GDP expansion, and the absence of clear disinflation momentum have reinforced trader consensus for a hold through the September 15-16 meeting, though the upcoming August CPI release and any escalation in geopolitical pressures remain key swing factors that could shift the path embedded in the 40.5% "Other" bucket.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$717,409End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year alongside supply disruptions from Middle East tensions have kept the federal funds rate anchored at 3.50-3.75% through the June and July FOMC meetings, supporting the 59.5% market-implied probability of unchanged policy across the June-July-September sequence. The July decision featured a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, reflecting internal divisions and prompting futures markets to price elevated odds of a September move higher even as June CPI softened modestly. Resilient labor market data, solid GDP expansion, and the absence of clear disinflation momentum have reinforced trader consensus for a hold through the September 15-16 meeting, though the upcoming August CPI release and any escalation in geopolitical pressures remain key swing factors that could shift the path embedded in the 40.5% "Other" bucket.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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