Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation, alongside a solid 162,000 jobs gain, have reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve tightening into year-end. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including at Jackson Hole, have amplified concerns over sticky price pressures and resilient labor conditions, shifting market-implied odds toward a 25 basis point hike by the December FOMC meeting at 55.5%. The 39.5% probability of no change reflects lingering uncertainty around inflation moderation and potential policy caution ahead of midterms, while smaller odds for larger moves or cuts remain minimal. The September 15-16 decision and subsequent data releases will serve as key near-term catalysts influencing the December path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25 bps increase 56%
No change 40%
50+ bps increase 4.4%
25 bps decrease 3.5%
$687,490 Vol.
$687,490 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
40%
25 bps increase
56%
50+ bps increase
4%
25 bps increase 56%
No change 40%
50+ bps increase 4.4%
25 bps decrease 3.5%
$687,490 Vol.
$687,490 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$102,808 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$155,970 Vol.
4%
No change
$136,748 Vol.
40%
25 bps increase
$187,162 Vol.
56%
50+ bps increase
$104,802 Vol.
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation, alongside a solid 162,000 jobs gain, have reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve tightening into year-end. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including at Jackson Hole, have amplified concerns over sticky price pressures and resilient labor conditions, shifting market-implied odds toward a 25 basis point hike by the December FOMC meeting at 55.5%. The 39.5% probability of no change reflects lingering uncertainty around inflation moderation and potential policy caution ahead of midterms, while smaller odds for larger moves or cuts remain minimal. The September 15-16 decision and subsequent data releases will serve as key near-term catalysts influencing the December path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$687,490End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation, alongside a solid 162,000 jobs gain, have reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve tightening into year-end. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including at Jackson Hole, have amplified concerns over sticky price pressures and resilient labor conditions, shifting market-implied odds toward a 25 basis point hike by the December FOMC meeting at 55.5%. The 39.5% probability of no change reflects lingering uncertainty around inflation moderation and potential policy caution ahead of midterms, while smaller odds for larger moves or cuts remain minimal. The September 15-16 decision and subsequent data releases will serve as key near-term catalysts influencing the December path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$687,490End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation, alongside a solid 162,000 jobs gain, have reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve tightening into year-end. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including at Jackson Hole, have amplified concerns over sticky price pressures and resilient labor conditions, shifting market-implied odds toward a 25 basis point hike by the December FOMC meeting at 55.5%. The 39.5% probability of no change reflects lingering uncertainty around inflation moderation and potential policy caution ahead of midterms, while smaller odds for larger moves or cuts remain minimal. The September 15-16 decision and subsequent data releases will serve as key near-term catalysts influencing the December path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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