Recent hotter-than-expected August 2026 CPI data, with headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and a 0.4% monthly rise driven by energy prices, has reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve tightening into year-end. The solid labor market, with unemployment holding at 4.1%, further supports the 57.5% market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike by December, as analysts at Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan revised forecasts upward amid concerns that disinflation has stalled. Current fed funds target of 3.50-3.75% and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh underscore the policy stance, though the 39.5% odds of no change reflect some core CPI moderation at 2.4% and upcoming data dependence ahead of the September FOMC meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25 bps increase 57%
No change 40%
25 bps decrease 3.0%
50+ bps increase 1.6%
$732,655 Vol.
$732,655 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
40%
25 bps increase
57%
50+ bps increase
2%
25 bps increase 57%
No change 40%
25 bps decrease 3.0%
50+ bps increase 1.6%
$732,655 Vol.
$732,655 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$110,593 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$164,720 Vol.
3%
No change
$147,016 Vol.
40%
25 bps increase
$198,284 Vol.
57%
50+ bps increase
$112,042 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hotter-than-expected August 2026 CPI data, with headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and a 0.4% monthly rise driven by energy prices, has reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve tightening into year-end. The solid labor market, with unemployment holding at 4.1%, further supports the 57.5% market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike by December, as analysts at Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan revised forecasts upward amid concerns that disinflation has stalled. Current fed funds target of 3.50-3.75% and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh underscore the policy stance, though the 39.5% odds of no change reflect some core CPI moderation at 2.4% and upcoming data dependence ahead of the September FOMC meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$732,655End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hotter-than-expected August 2026 CPI data, with headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and a 0.4% monthly rise driven by energy prices, has reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve tightening into year-end. The solid labor market, with unemployment holding at 4.1%, further supports the 57.5% market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike by December, as analysts at Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan revised forecasts upward amid concerns that disinflation has stalled. Current fed funds target of 3.50-3.75% and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh underscore the policy stance, though the 39.5% odds of no change reflect some core CPI moderation at 2.4% and upcoming data dependence ahead of the September FOMC meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$732,655End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent hotter-than-expected August 2026 CPI data, with headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and a 0.4% monthly rise driven by energy prices, has reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve tightening into year-end. The solid labor market, with unemployment holding at 4.1%, further supports the 57.5% market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike by December, as analysts at Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan revised forecasts upward amid concerns that disinflation has stalled. Current fed funds target of 3.50-3.75% and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh underscore the policy stance, though the 39.5% odds of no change reflect some core CPI moderation at 2.4% and upcoming data dependence ahead of the September FOMC meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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