The closure of the Department of Justice criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in April 2026, following a federal judge's finding of essentially no evidence of wrongdoing related to headquarters renovation costs and congressional testimony, underpins the 97.2% market-implied odds against incarceration before 2027. Trader consensus reflects Powell's clean record, the absence of any active indictments or credible legal proceedings since the matter shifted to the Fed inspector general, and the institutional safeguards around central bank leadership amid monetary policy debates. While tail risks such as an unexpected IG referral yielding new evidence or highly improbable political escalation remain theoretically possible, they lack substantiation in current regulatory filings or official channels and would require unprecedented developments to shift probabilities materially.