Polymarket traders assign a 56.9% implied probability to the federal funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026—the upper bound of the current 3.50%-3.75% target range—driven by yesterday's hotter-than-expected April CPI print of 3.8% year-over-year, up from 3.3% in March and propelled by energy cost surges from the Iran war's oil supply disruptions. This reacceleration, the highest inflation since May 2023, has eroded cut expectations, boosting odds for 4.0% (19.9%) while capping lower outcomes like 3.25% (9.0%). The Fed held steady through April's FOMC amid dissents, with March dot plot median at 3.4% now outdated; banks like J.P. Morgan see prolonged holds or hikes. June 16-17 FOMC looms as the next catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.75% 56.4%
4.0% 20.3%
3.25% 9%
3.5% 7%
$6,515,888 Vol.
$6,515,888 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
≤1.0%
<1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
1%
2.0%
1%
2.25%
1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
1%
3.0%
4%
3.25%
9%
3.5%
7%
3.75%
56%
4.0%
20%
4.25%
3%
≥ 4.5%
2%
3.75% 56.4%
4.0% 20.3%
3.25% 9%
3.5% 7%
$6,515,888 Vol.
$6,515,888 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
≤1.0%
$215,822 Vol.
<1%
1.25
$134,171 Vol.
1%
1.5%
$133,929 Vol.
<1%
1.75%
$133,820 Vol.
1%
2.0%
$243,451 Vol.
1%
2.25%
$70,657 Vol.
1%
2.5%
$158,659 Vol.
1%
2.75%
$45,833 Vol.
1%
3.0%
$454,543 Vol.
4%
3.25%
$51,292 Vol.
9%
3.5%
$189,776 Vol.
7%
3.75%
$517,605 Vol.
56%
4.0%
$1,358,128 Vol.
20%
4.25%
$412,676 Vol.
3%
≥ 4.5%
$2,395,524 Vol.
2%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders assign a 56.9% implied probability to the federal funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026—the upper bound of the current 3.50%-3.75% target range—driven by yesterday's hotter-than-expected April CPI print of 3.8% year-over-year, up from 3.3% in March and propelled by energy cost surges from the Iran war's oil supply disruptions. This reacceleration, the highest inflation since May 2023, has eroded cut expectations, boosting odds for 4.0% (19.9%) while capping lower outcomes like 3.25% (9.0%). The Fed held steady through April's FOMC amid dissents, with March dot plot median at 3.4% now outdated; banks like J.P. Morgan see prolonged holds or hikes. June 16-17 FOMC looms as the next catalyst.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Market Opened: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Volume
$6,515,888End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders assign a 56.9% implied probability to the federal funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026—the upper bound of the current 3.50%-3.75% target range—driven by yesterday's hotter-than-expected April CPI print of 3.8% year-over-year, up from 3.3% in March and propelled by energy cost surges from the Iran war's oil supply disruptions. This reacceleration, the highest inflation since May 2023, has eroded cut expectations, boosting odds for 4.0% (19.9%) while capping lower outcomes like 3.25% (9.0%). The Fed held steady through April's FOMC amid dissents, with March dot plot median at 3.4% now outdated; banks like J.P. Morgan see prolonged holds or hikes. June 16-17 FOMC looms as the next catalyst.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volume
$6,515,888End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 56.9% implied probability to the federal funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026—the upper bound of the current 3.50%-3.75% target range—driven by yesterday's hotter-than-expected April CPI print of 3.8% year-over-year, up from 3.3% in March and propelled by energy cost surges from the Iran war's oil supply disruptions. This reacceleration, the highest inflation since May 2023, has eroded cut expectations, boosting odds for 4.0% (19.9%) while capping lower outcomes like 3.25% (9.0%). The Fed held steady through April's FOMC amid dissents, with March dot plot median at 3.4% now outdated; banks like J.P. Morgan see prolonged holds or hikes. June 16-17 FOMC looms as the next catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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