With Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's term expiring on May 15—just two days away—traders show near-unanimous 99.4% confidence that President Trump will not attempt to fire him before leaving office in 2029, as no removal action has materialized despite April threats if Powell lingered post-term. Trump instead nominated Kevin Warsh as successor in March, with the Senate Banking Committee advancing the nomination 13-11 to the full Senate this week, prioritizing standard confirmation over a legally fraught "for cause" dismissal protected by Federal Reserve independence statutes and court precedents from Trump's first term. Realistic shifts remain unlikely absent a sudden Warsh confirmation stall or economic crisis prompting escalation, though Fed stability weighs against intervention.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$90,001 Vol.
$90,001 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$90,001 Vol.
$90,001 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Powell from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's term expiring on May 15—just two days away—traders show near-unanimous 99.4% confidence that President Trump will not attempt to fire him before leaving office in 2029, as no removal action has materialized despite April threats if Powell lingered post-term. Trump instead nominated Kevin Warsh as successor in March, with the Senate Banking Committee advancing the nomination 13-11 to the full Senate this week, prioritizing standard confirmation over a legally fraught "for cause" dismissal protected by Federal Reserve independence statutes and court precedents from Trump's first term. Realistic shifts remain unlikely absent a sudden Warsh confirmation stall or economic crisis prompting escalation, though Fed stability weighs against intervention.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Powell from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Powell from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 10:43 AM ET
Volume
$90,001End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Powell from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's term expiring on May 15—just two days away—traders show near-unanimous 99.4% confidence that President Trump will not attempt to fire him before leaving office in 2029, as no removal action has materialized despite April threats if Powell lingered post-term. Trump instead nominated Kevin Warsh as successor in March, with the Senate Banking Committee advancing the nomination 13-11 to the full Senate this week, prioritizing standard confirmation over a legally fraught "for cause" dismissal protected by Federal Reserve independence statutes and court precedents from Trump's first term. Realistic shifts remain unlikely absent a sudden Warsh confirmation stall or economic crisis prompting escalation, though Fed stability weighs against intervention.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Powell from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Powell from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$90,001End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...With Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's term expiring on May 15—just two days away—traders show near-unanimous 99.4% confidence that President Trump will not attempt to fire him before leaving office in 2029, as no removal action has materialized despite April threats if Powell lingered post-term. Trump instead nominated Kevin Warsh as successor in March, with the Senate Banking Committee advancing the nomination 13-11 to the full Senate this week, prioritizing standard confirmation over a legally fraught "for cause" dismissal protected by Federal Reserve independence statutes and court precedents from Trump's first term. Realistic shifts remain unlikely absent a sudden Warsh confirmation stall or economic crisis prompting escalation, though Fed stability weighs against intervention.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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