This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Senate's 51-45 confirmation of Kevin Warsh to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors on May 12 has solidified trader consensus around his impending ascension as Fed Chair, replacing Jerome Powell whose term expires May 15. This party-line vote, following a 49-44 cloture invocation and Senate Banking Committee approval, reflects Republican control and minimal Democratic opposition, with crossovers from Sens. Fetterman and Coons. Warsh's prior Fed governorship and vows of independence during April hearings further eased concerns. While commanding 100% implied probability, late procedural holds, health issues, or recess appointment maneuvers could theoretically disrupt, though historical confirmation patterns for aligned nominees suggest negligible risk.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Senate's 51-45 confirmation of Kevin Warsh to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors on May 12 has solidified trader consensus around his impending ascension as Fed Chair, replacing Jerome Powell whose term expires May 15. This party-line vote, following a 49-44 cloture invocation and Senate Banking Committee approval, reflects Republican control and minimal Democratic opposition, with crossovers from Sens. Fetterman and Coons. Warsh's prior Fed governorship and vows of independence during April hearings further eased concerns. While commanding 100% implied probability, late procedural holds, health issues, or recess appointment maneuvers could theoretically disrupt, though historical confirmation patterns for aligned nominees suggest negligible risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
May 2 2026
Market
Kevin Warsh rises to 100%1%
With committee approval and no further obstacles, traders
Apr 26 2026
Senate Banking Committee votes 13-11 along party lines to advance Kevin Warsh nomination
Kevin Warsh rises to 99%1%
The committee approved Warsh's nomination, with all Republicans supporting and Democrats opposing, setting the stage for a full Senate vote and pushing market
Apr 24 2026
DOJ closes criminal investigation into Jerome Powell, removing key obstacle for Warsh confirmation
Kevin Warsh rises to 98%4%
The Department of Justice ended its probe into Powell, which had been blocking Senator Thom Tillis's support for Warsh, clearing a major hurdle and sharply increasing Warsh's confirmation probability.
Apr 22 2026
Senator Thom Tillis announces support for Warsh confirmation after DOJ ends Powell investigation
Kevin Warsh rises to 98%4%
Tillis's shift to support Warsh following the investigation closure was pivotal, removing a major confirmation blockade and driving Warsh's market
Apr 21 2026
Senator Elizabeth Warren criticizes Warsh nomination as a "sock puppet" for Trump, opposing confirmation
Kevin Warsh dips to 94%1%
Warren's vocal opposition contributed to Democratic resistance in the committee vote, slightly tempering Warsh's market gains during the hearing period.
Apr 21 2026
Kevin Warsh faces intense questioning at Senate confirmation hearing, emphasizes Fed independence
Kevin Warsh dips to 94%1%
During his hearing, Warsh stressed his independence from President Trump and openness to rate cuts, but faced tough questions and political skepticism, causing a slight market dip.
Mar 31 2026
Senate Banking Committee schedules Kevin Warsh confirmation hearing for mid-April
Kevin Warsh rises to 95%1%
The Senate Banking Committee announced the confirmation hearing for Warsh in the week of April 13, signaling progress in the nomination process amid rising inflation and geopolitical tensions.
Mar 14 2026
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urges Senate to proceed with Warsh hearings despite ongoing Powell investigation
Scott Bessent dips to 0%2%
Bessent's call to continue hearings amid the Powell probe failed to sway blocking senators, leading to a decline in Warsh rivals' market shares, including Bessent himself.
Bowman saw a small uptick in market interest as a potential alternative, but this quickly faded as Warsh's nomination advanced and other candidates lost traction.
Mar 4 2026
White House officially submits Kevin Warsh nomination for Federal Reserve Chair and Board of Governors
Kevin Warsh jumps to 94%5%
President Trump formally submitted Kevin Warsh's nomination to the Senate for both Fed Chair and Board of Governors positions, marking the official start of the confirmation process and boosting market confidence in Warsh's chances.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Senate's 51-45 confirmation of Kevin Warsh to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors on May 12 has solidified trader consensus around his impending ascension as Fed Chair, replacing Jerome Powell whose term expires May 15. This party-line vote, following a 49-44 cloture invocation and Senate Banking Committee approval, reflects Republican control and minimal Democratic opposition, with crossovers from Sens. Fetterman and Coons. Warsh's prior Fed governorship and vows of independence during April hearings further eased concerns. While commanding 100% implied probability, late procedural holds, health issues, or recess appointment maneuvers could theoretically disrupt, though historical confirmation patterns for aligned nominees suggest negligible risk.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Senate's 51-45 confirmation of Kevin Warsh to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors on May 12 has solidified trader consensus around his impending ascension as Fed Chair, replacing Jerome Powell whose term expires May 15. This party-line vote, following a 49-44 cloture invocation and Senate Banking Committee approval, reflects Republican control and minimal Democratic opposition, with crossovers from Sens. Fetterman and Coons. Warsh's prior Fed governorship and vows of independence during April hearings further eased concerns. While commanding 100% implied probability, late procedural holds, health issues, or recess appointment maneuvers could theoretically disrupt, though historical confirmation patterns for aligned nominees suggest negligible risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
May 2 2026
Market
Kevin Warsh rises to 100%1%
With committee approval and no further obstacles, traders
Apr 26 2026
Senate Banking Committee votes 13-11 along party lines to advance Kevin Warsh nomination
Kevin Warsh rises to 99%1%
The committee approved Warsh's nomination, with all Republicans supporting and Democrats opposing, setting the stage for a full Senate vote and pushing market
Apr 24 2026
DOJ closes criminal investigation into Jerome Powell, removing key obstacle for Warsh confirmation
Kevin Warsh rises to 98%4%
The Department of Justice ended its probe into Powell, which had been blocking Senator Thom Tillis's support for Warsh, clearing a major hurdle and sharply increasing Warsh's confirmation probability.
Apr 22 2026
Senator Thom Tillis announces support for Warsh confirmation after DOJ ends Powell investigation
Kevin Warsh rises to 98%4%
Tillis's shift to support Warsh following the investigation closure was pivotal, removing a major confirmation blockade and driving Warsh's market
Apr 21 2026
Senator Elizabeth Warren criticizes Warsh nomination as a "sock puppet" for Trump, opposing confirmation
Kevin Warsh dips to 94%1%
Warren's vocal opposition contributed to Democratic resistance in the committee vote, slightly tempering Warsh's market gains during the hearing period.
Apr 21 2026
Kevin Warsh faces intense questioning at Senate confirmation hearing, emphasizes Fed independence
Kevin Warsh dips to 94%1%
During his hearing, Warsh stressed his independence from President Trump and openness to rate cuts, but faced tough questions and political skepticism, causing a slight market dip.
Mar 31 2026
Senate Banking Committee schedules Kevin Warsh confirmation hearing for mid-April
Kevin Warsh rises to 95%1%
The Senate Banking Committee announced the confirmation hearing for Warsh in the week of April 13, signaling progress in the nomination process amid rising inflation and geopolitical tensions.
Mar 14 2026
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urges Senate to proceed with Warsh hearings despite ongoing Powell investigation
Scott Bessent dips to 0%2%
Bessent's call to continue hearings amid the Powell probe failed to sway blocking senators, leading to a decline in Warsh rivals' market shares, including Bessent himself.
Bowman saw a small uptick in market interest as a potential alternative, but this quickly faded as Warsh's nomination advanced and other candidates lost traction.
Mar 4 2026
White House officially submits Kevin Warsh nomination for Federal Reserve Chair and Board of Governors
Kevin Warsh jumps to 94%5%
President Trump formally submitted Kevin Warsh's nomination to the Senate for both Fed Chair and Board of Governors positions, marking the official start of the confirmation process and boosting market confidence in Warsh's chances.
"Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kevin Warsh" at 100%, followed by "Judy Shelton" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" has generated $64.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" is "Kevin Warsh" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Judy Shelton" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $64.3 million traded on “Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "Kevin Warsh" in the "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "Kevin Warsh" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Oct 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
The "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" market has an active community of 112 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
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Frequently Asked Questions