Polymarket traders assign an 87% implied probability to no Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data and sticky inflation that have prompted banks like BofA, Goldman Sachs, and Barclays to push first rate cuts into 2027 or later. April nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000—77% above forecasts—holding the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%, while CPI inflation lingers above 3% YoY amid surging energy prices up 17.9% from oil shocks tied to Middle East tensions. Q1 GDP accelerated to 2.0% annualized, signaling no crisis warranting unscheduled action akin to 2008 or COVID eras. The Fed's recent hold at 3.50%-3.75% and hawkish FOMC splits underscore higher-for-longer policy, with June 16-17 meeting and May CPI as key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$103,984 Vol.
$103,984 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$103,984 Vol.
$103,984 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Polymarket traders assign an 87% implied probability to no Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data and sticky inflation that have prompted banks like BofA, Goldman Sachs, and Barclays to push first rate cuts into 2027 or later. April nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000—77% above forecasts—holding the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%, while CPI inflation lingers above 3% YoY amid surging energy prices up 17.9% from oil shocks tied to Middle East tensions. Q1 GDP accelerated to 2.0% annualized, signaling no crisis warranting unscheduled action akin to 2008 or COVID eras. The Fed's recent hold at 3.50%-3.75% and hawkish FOMC splits underscore higher-for-longer policy, with June 16-17 meeting and May CPI as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$103,984End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Polymarket traders assign an 87% implied probability to no Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data and sticky inflation that have prompted banks like BofA, Goldman Sachs, and Barclays to push first rate cuts into 2027 or later. April nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000—77% above forecasts—holding the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%, while CPI inflation lingers above 3% YoY amid surging energy prices up 17.9% from oil shocks tied to Middle East tensions. Q1 GDP accelerated to 2.0% annualized, signaling no crisis warranting unscheduled action akin to 2008 or COVID eras. The Fed's recent hold at 3.50%-3.75% and hawkish FOMC splits underscore higher-for-longer policy, with June 16-17 meeting and May CPI as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volume
$103,984End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders assign an 87% implied probability to no Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data and sticky inflation that have prompted banks like BofA, Goldman Sachs, and Barclays to push first rate cuts into 2027 or later. April nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000—77% above forecasts—holding the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%, while CPI inflation lingers above 3% YoY amid surging energy prices up 17.9% from oil shocks tied to Middle East tensions. Q1 GDP accelerated to 2.0% annualized, signaling no crisis warranting unscheduled action akin to 2008 or COVID eras. The Fed's recent hold at 3.50%-3.75% and hawkish FOMC splits underscore higher-for-longer policy, with June 16-17 meeting and May CPI as key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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