Traders see just a 5.5% implied probability of a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, anchored in the current policy stance of gradual easing amid inflation near the 2% target and a labor market with unemployment around 4.2% showing no recession signals. Recent FOMC minutes and dot-plot projections reinforce a data-dependent path without acute financial-stress triggers, consistent with historical precedent where such actions followed major shocks like 2008 or 2020. Market-implied odds align with stable Treasury yields and low volatility measures. Unexpected developments such as a sharp equity selloff, credit-market freeze, or inflation surge could still force reconsideration, though these remain distant tail risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6% chance
$136,916 Vol.
$136,916 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% chance
$136,916 Vol.
$136,916 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Traders see just a 5.5% implied probability of a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, anchored in the current policy stance of gradual easing amid inflation near the 2% target and a labor market with unemployment around 4.2% showing no recession signals. Recent FOMC minutes and dot-plot projections reinforce a data-dependent path without acute financial-stress triggers, consistent with historical precedent where such actions followed major shocks like 2008 or 2020. Market-implied odds align with stable Treasury yields and low volatility measures. Unexpected developments such as a sharp equity selloff, credit-market freeze, or inflation surge could still force reconsideration, though these remain distant tail risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$136,916End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Traders see just a 5.5% implied probability of a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, anchored in the current policy stance of gradual easing amid inflation near the 2% target and a labor market with unemployment around 4.2% showing no recession signals. Recent FOMC minutes and dot-plot projections reinforce a data-dependent path without acute financial-stress triggers, consistent with historical precedent where such actions followed major shocks like 2008 or 2020. Market-implied odds align with stable Treasury yields and low volatility measures. Unexpected developments such as a sharp equity selloff, credit-market freeze, or inflation surge could still force reconsideration, though these remain distant tail risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volume
$136,916End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders see just a 5.5% implied probability of a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, anchored in the current policy stance of gradual easing amid inflation near the 2% target and a labor market with unemployment around 4.2% showing no recession signals. Recent FOMC minutes and dot-plot projections reinforce a data-dependent path without acute financial-stress triggers, consistent with historical precedent where such actions followed major shocks like 2008 or 2020. Market-implied odds align with stable Treasury yields and low volatility measures. Unexpected developments such as a sharp equity selloff, credit-market freeze, or inflation surge could still force reconsideration, though these remain distant tail risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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