Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026 (98.4% implied probability), driven by the absence of any S-1 filing or official announcement, coupled with recent mega-funding rounds providing ample private runway. In February, Anthropic closed a $30 billion Series G at $380 billion post-money valuation, followed by April-May reports of talks for another $50 billion raise at $900 billion-plus, backed by commitments from Amazon and Google. Bankers and media now target a Q4 or October listing, aligning with historical AI lab timelines amid regulatory scrutiny and high private valuations. Realistic challenges include a surprise S-1 filing or accelerated market conditions prompting an earlier debut, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo IPO by June 30, 2026 98.4%
600B+ <1%
300–400B <1%
<100B <1%
$1,264,743 Vol.
$1,264,743 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<100B
<1%
100–200B
<1%
200–300B
<1%
300–400B
1%
400–600B
<1%
600B+
1%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
98%
No IPO by June 30, 2026 98.4%
600B+ <1%
300–400B <1%
<100B <1%
$1,264,743 Vol.
$1,264,743 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<100B
$252,379 Vol.
<1%
100–200B
$89,677 Vol.
<1%
200–300B
$145,622 Vol.
<1%
300–400B
$97,009 Vol.
1%
400–600B
$156,411 Vol.
<1%
600B+
$282,894 Vol.
1%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
$240,772 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026 (98.4% implied probability), driven by the absence of any S-1 filing or official announcement, coupled with recent mega-funding rounds providing ample private runway. In February, Anthropic closed a $30 billion Series G at $380 billion post-money valuation, followed by April-May reports of talks for another $50 billion raise at $900 billion-plus, backed by commitments from Amazon and Google. Bankers and media now target a Q4 or October listing, aligning with historical AI lab timelines amid regulatory scrutiny and high private valuations. Realistic challenges include a surprise S-1 filing or accelerated market conditions prompting an earlier debut, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past month.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,264,743End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026 (98.4% implied probability), driven by the absence of any S-1 filing or official announcement, coupled with recent mega-funding rounds providing ample private runway. In February, Anthropic closed a $30 billion Series G at $380 billion post-money valuation, followed by April-May reports of talks for another $50 billion raise at $900 billion-plus, backed by commitments from Amazon and Google. Bankers and media now target a Q4 or October listing, aligning with historical AI lab timelines amid regulatory scrutiny and high private valuations. Realistic challenges include a surprise S-1 filing or accelerated market conditions prompting an earlier debut, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past month.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,264,743End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026 (98.4% implied probability), driven by the absence of any S-1 filing or official announcement, coupled with recent mega-funding rounds providing ample private runway. In February, Anthropic closed a $30 billion Series G at $380 billion post-money valuation, followed by April-May reports of talks for another $50 billion raise at $900 billion-plus, backed by commitments from Amazon and Google. Bankers and media now target a Q4 or October listing, aligning with historical AI lab timelines amid regulatory scrutiny and high private valuations. Realistic challenges include a surprise S-1 filing or accelerated market conditions prompting an earlier debut, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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