Anthropic’s rapid revenue expansion, with annualized run rates projected above $110 billion by year-end, underpins its 48.2% implied probability of delivering the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, ahead of SpaceX’s completed June debut at $1.77 trillion. Traders weigh Anthropic’s targeted November listing near or above $2 trillion—supported by enterprise demand for Claude models and a $65 billion Series H round—against SpaceX’s established scale in Starlink and launch services, now public at a $1.77 trillion valuation. xAI’s 25.5% odds reflect its integration within SpaceX, while OpenAI’s potential 2027 delay limits its 2026 impact. Market-implied odds reflect capital-weighted sentiment on these timelines and multiples amid volatile AI valuations.