Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors SpaceX as the largest IPO by market cap in 2026, with an implied 86.5% probability driven by its accelerated preparations following the February merger with xAI that boosted the combined entity's valuation toward $1.75 trillion, incorporating Starlink's satellite internet dominance and Grok chatbot revenue pilots with Wall Street firms announced this week. Recent catalysts include Elon Musk's global spaceport scouting for Starship scalability and investor Ron Baron's forecast of it becoming the planet's largest company, fueling expectations of a summer listing with Nasdaq 100 fast-track inclusion. xAI's 25.5% odds reflect merger synergies in AI-space infrastructure like orbital data centers, while Anthropic (9.5%) and OpenAI (2.9%) trail amid delayed timelines—OpenAI's CFO signaling a potential 2027 push due to revenue pressures—and lower projected valuations around $380 billion and $1 trillion, respectively, underscoring SpaceX's lead in skin-in-the-game capital deployment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSpaceX 87%
Anthropic 9.5%
OpenAI 2.9%
Kraken <1%
$1,836,056 Vol.
$1,836,056 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
87%
Anthropic
10%
OpenAI
3%
Kraken
<1%
Discord
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Stripe
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
Waymo
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
Databricks
<1%
SpaceX 87%
Anthropic 9.5%
OpenAI 2.9%
Kraken <1%
$1,836,056 Vol.
$1,836,056 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
$223,678 Vol.
87%
Anthropic
$357,767 Vol.
10%
OpenAI
$331,172 Vol.
3%
Kraken
$384,043 Vol.
<1%
Discord
$78,761 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$96,392 Vol.
<1%
Stripe
$47,858 Vol.
<1%
SHEIN
$67,554 Vol.
<1%
Waymo
$56,444 Vol.
<1%
Revolut
$47,136 Vol.
<1%
Perplexity AI
$63,496 Vol.
<1%
Databricks
$81,852 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors SpaceX as the largest IPO by market cap in 2026, with an implied 86.5% probability driven by its accelerated preparations following the February merger with xAI that boosted the combined entity's valuation toward $1.75 trillion, incorporating Starlink's satellite internet dominance and Grok chatbot revenue pilots with Wall Street firms announced this week. Recent catalysts include Elon Musk's global spaceport scouting for Starship scalability and investor Ron Baron's forecast of it becoming the planet's largest company, fueling expectations of a summer listing with Nasdaq 100 fast-track inclusion. xAI's 25.5% odds reflect merger synergies in AI-space infrastructure like orbital data centers, while Anthropic (9.5%) and OpenAI (2.9%) trail amid delayed timelines—OpenAI's CFO signaling a potential 2027 push due to revenue pressures—and lower projected valuations around $380 billion and $1 trillion, respectively, underscoring SpaceX's lead in skin-in-the-game capital deployment.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Volume
$1,836,056End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors SpaceX as the largest IPO by market cap in 2026, with an implied 86.5% probability driven by its accelerated preparations following the February merger with xAI that boosted the combined entity's valuation toward $1.75 trillion, incorporating Starlink's satellite internet dominance and Grok chatbot revenue pilots with Wall Street firms announced this week. Recent catalysts include Elon Musk's global spaceport scouting for Starship scalability and investor Ron Baron's forecast of it becoming the planet's largest company, fueling expectations of a summer listing with Nasdaq 100 fast-track inclusion. xAI's 25.5% odds reflect merger synergies in AI-space infrastructure like orbital data centers, while Anthropic (9.5%) and OpenAI (2.9%) trail amid delayed timelines—OpenAI's CFO signaling a potential 2027 push due to revenue pressures—and lower projected valuations around $380 billion and $1 trillion, respectively, underscoring SpaceX's lead in skin-in-the-game capital deployment.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,836,056End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors SpaceX as the largest IPO by market cap in 2026, with an implied 86.5% probability driven by its accelerated preparations following the February merger with xAI that boosted the combined entity's valuation toward $1.75 trillion, incorporating Starlink's satellite internet dominance and Grok chatbot revenue pilots with Wall Street firms announced this week. Recent catalysts include Elon Musk's global spaceport scouting for Starship scalability and investor Ron Baron's forecast of it becoming the planet's largest company, fueling expectations of a summer listing with Nasdaq 100 fast-track inclusion. xAI's 25.5% odds reflect merger synergies in AI-space infrastructure like orbital data centers, while Anthropic (9.5%) and OpenAI (2.9%) trail amid delayed timelines—OpenAI's CFO signaling a potential 2027 push due to revenue pressures—and lower projected valuations around $380 billion and $1 trillion, respectively, underscoring SpaceX's lead in skin-in-the-game capital deployment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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