Anthropic’s dominant 69.6% implied probability reflects traders’ view that its recent Claude Opus 4.7 release, with leading scores on coding benchmarks like SWE-bench and strong agentic capabilities, positions the company ahead through mid-2026. Google’s 21% share tracks Gemini 3.1 Pro’s gains in multimodal reasoning and cost efficiency, while OpenAI’s lower 6.5% reading follows GPT-5.5’s April intelligence-index jump that has not yet translated into sustained leadership. With no new frontier-model drops reported in May, attention centers on which lab delivers the clearest end-of-June improvements in reliability and real-world deployment. Traders weigh Anthropic’s enterprise trust and benchmark consistency against potential late-cycle updates from Google and OpenAI that could shift the ranking before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 69.6%
Google 21%
OpenAI 7%
xAI 1.4%
$5,902,909 Vol.
$5,902,909 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
70%
21%
OpenAI
7%
xAI
1%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 69.6%
Google 21%
OpenAI 7%
xAI 1.4%
$5,902,909 Vol.
$5,902,909 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$834,196 Vol.
70%
$526,670 Vol.
21%
OpenAI
$336,256 Vol.
7%
xAI
$1,061,319 Vol.
1%
Meta
$131,338 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$499,336 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$158,414 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$298,054 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$477,697 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$151,592 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$155,104 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$375,763 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$359,482 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$377,405 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$160,282 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s dominant 69.6% implied probability reflects traders’ view that its recent Claude Opus 4.7 release, with leading scores on coding benchmarks like SWE-bench and strong agentic capabilities, positions the company ahead through mid-2026. Google’s 21% share tracks Gemini 3.1 Pro’s gains in multimodal reasoning and cost efficiency, while OpenAI’s lower 6.5% reading follows GPT-5.5’s April intelligence-index jump that has not yet translated into sustained leadership. With no new frontier-model drops reported in May, attention centers on which lab delivers the clearest end-of-June improvements in reliability and real-world deployment. Traders weigh Anthropic’s enterprise trust and benchmark consistency against potential late-cycle updates from Google and OpenAI that could shift the ranking before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$5,902,909End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s dominant 69.6% implied probability reflects traders’ view that its recent Claude Opus 4.7 release, with leading scores on coding benchmarks like SWE-bench and strong agentic capabilities, positions the company ahead through mid-2026. Google’s 21% share tracks Gemini 3.1 Pro’s gains in multimodal reasoning and cost efficiency, while OpenAI’s lower 6.5% reading follows GPT-5.5’s April intelligence-index jump that has not yet translated into sustained leadership. With no new frontier-model drops reported in May, attention centers on which lab delivers the clearest end-of-June improvements in reliability and real-world deployment. Traders weigh Anthropic’s enterprise trust and benchmark consistency against potential late-cycle updates from Google and OpenAI that could shift the ranking before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$5,902,909End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s dominant 69.6% implied probability reflects traders’ view that its recent Claude Opus 4.7 release, with leading scores on coding benchmarks like SWE-bench and strong agentic capabilities, positions the company ahead through mid-2026. Google’s 21% share tracks Gemini 3.1 Pro’s gains in multimodal reasoning and cost efficiency, while OpenAI’s lower 6.5% reading follows GPT-5.5’s April intelligence-index jump that has not yet translated into sustained leadership. With no new frontier-model drops reported in May, attention centers on which lab delivers the clearest end-of-June improvements in reliability and real-world deployment. Traders weigh Anthropic’s enterprise trust and benchmark consistency against potential late-cycle updates from Google and OpenAI that could shift the ranking before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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