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GPT 5 predictions & odds

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GPT-5.6 released by...?

GPT-5.6 released by...?

94%

July 31

$39.7K Vol.

$23.5K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Best AI model on May 16? (Style Control Off)

Best AI model on May 16? (Style Control Off)

96%

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

$24.2K Vol.

$42.3K Liq.

Ends in 2 days

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

57%

50%+

$22.9K Vol.

$883 Liq.

1

Ends in about 2 months

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

66%

60%+

$34.6K Vol.

$1.8K Liq.

4

Ends in about 2 months

GPT-6 released by…?

GPT-6 released by…?

82%

December 31, 2026

$304K Vol.

$11.4K Liq.

45

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by...?

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by...?

93%

September 30

$7.5K Vol.

$13.6K Liq.

Ends in 5 months

Counter-Strike: Golden Five vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group A

Counter-Strike: Golden Five vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group A

100%

LPH Gaming

$33.2K Vol.

Grok 5 released by...?

Grok 5 released by...?

11%

June 30, 2026

$156K Vol.

$2.5K Liq.

30

Ends in about 2 months

Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

100%

Atreides

$1.8K Vol.

$32.2K Liq.

Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Wildcard Gaming (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major Salt Lake City Group Stage

Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Wildcard Gaming (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major Salt Lake City Group Stage

100%

Wildcard Gaming

$7.2K Vol.

$40.5K Liq.

Ends in about 3 hours

Counter-Strike: SHISHKA vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

Counter-Strike: SHISHKA vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

100%

SHISHKA

$603 Vol.

Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

100%

Misa Esports

$816 Vol.

$36.6K Liq.

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in May 2026?

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in May 2026?

30%

3

$15.8K Vol.

$5.8K Liq.

2

Ends in 17 days

Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

100%

Endless Journey

$1.4K Vol.

Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage

Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage

100%

magic

$964K Vol.

$896K today

Counter-Strike: SHISHKA vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

Counter-Strike: SHISHKA vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

55%

SHISHKA

$11 Vol.

$2.4K Liq.

Ends in about 23 hours

Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs ENJOY (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs ENJOY (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

100%

CYBERSHOKE Prospects

$705 Vol.

What will happen before GTA VI?

What will happen before GTA VI?

99%

Drake releases Iceman

$22M Vol.

$660K Liq.

847

Ends in 3 months

Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

100%

Donstu Esports

$2.3K Vol.

Claude 5 released by…?

Claude 5 released by…?

81%

September 30, 2026

$4M Vol.

$57.8K Liq.

204

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 105 active markets for GPT 5 that lets you track or trade on predictions like “GPT-5.6 released by...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $27.1M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Counter-Strike: Golden Five vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group A”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “What will happen before GTA VI?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “What will happen before GTA VI?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 100% chance to Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on GPT 5 predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.