Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 68% implied probability to claim the second-best AI model by June 30, driven by the recent release of Claude Opus 4.7, which scores 57 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index—nearly matching OpenAI's leading GPT-5.5 at 60 and surpassing most rivals on reasoning and agentic benchmarks. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Instant launch on May 5 solidified its top spot, positioning Anthropic as the clear challenger amid tight proprietary model races. Google trails at 15.5% ahead of its May 19 I/O event, where Gemini 3.1 updates could narrow the gap, while xAI and DeepSeek lag due to weaker recent frontier capabilities. Upcoming previews like potential Claude 5 could cement the positioning, though benchmark volatility and surprise announcements remain risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 68%
Google 16%
OpenAI 9.3%
xAI 2.7%
$396,596 Vol.
$396,596 Vol.

Anthropic
68%

16%

OpenAI
9%

xAI
3%

DeepSeek
2%

Meta
1%

ByteDance
1%

Alibaba
1%

Microsoft
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Amazon
<1%
Anthropic 68%
Google 16%
OpenAI 9.3%
xAI 2.7%
$396,596 Vol.
$396,596 Vol.

Anthropic
68%

16%

OpenAI
9%

xAI
3%

DeepSeek
2%

Meta
1%

ByteDance
1%

Alibaba
1%

Microsoft
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Amazon
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 68% implied probability to claim the second-best AI model by June 30, driven by the recent release of Claude Opus 4.7, which scores 57 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index—nearly matching OpenAI's leading GPT-5.5 at 60 and surpassing most rivals on reasoning and agentic benchmarks. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Instant launch on May 5 solidified its top spot, positioning Anthropic as the clear challenger amid tight proprietary model races. Google trails at 15.5% ahead of its May 19 I/O event, where Gemini 3.1 updates could narrow the gap, while xAI and DeepSeek lag due to weaker recent frontier capabilities. Upcoming previews like potential Claude 5 could cement the positioning, though benchmark volatility and surprise announcements remain risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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