Anthropic holds a commanding 92.5% market-implied probability for second-best AI model by end of June 2026 because its Claude Opus 4.8 and related frontier variants (Fable 5, Mythos) consistently rank immediately behind OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family on major benchmarks and the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard. Recent releases and iterative improvements have delivered leading scores in agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and SWE-bench-style tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.x models and others trail further back. With only twelve days remaining, no credible near-term launch or benchmark shift has emerged to disrupt this ordering. A last-minute Google or xAI capability jump, or an unexpected OpenAI regression on the resolution leaderboard, could theoretically alter the outcome, though such moves remain improbable given typical release cycles and current capability gaps.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 98.4%
OpenAI <1%
Google <1%
xAI <1%
$694,562 Vol.
$694,562 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
98%
OpenAI
1%
1%
xAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Meta
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Anthropic 98.4%
OpenAI <1%
Google <1%
xAI <1%
$694,562 Vol.
$694,562 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$55,678 Vol.
98%
OpenAI
$66,942 Vol.
1%
$42,856 Vol.
1%
xAI
$35,475 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$268,903 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$29,203 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$11,243 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$66,111 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$24,628 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$16,063 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$24,545 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$14,677 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$13,343 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$13,645 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$11,249 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds a commanding 92.5% market-implied probability for second-best AI model by end of June 2026 because its Claude Opus 4.8 and related frontier variants (Fable 5, Mythos) consistently rank immediately behind OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family on major benchmarks and the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard. Recent releases and iterative improvements have delivered leading scores in agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and SWE-bench-style tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.x models and others trail further back. With only twelve days remaining, no credible near-term launch or benchmark shift has emerged to disrupt this ordering. A last-minute Google or xAI capability jump, or an unexpected OpenAI regression on the resolution leaderboard, could theoretically alter the outcome, though such moves remain improbable given typical release cycles and current capability gaps.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$694,562End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds a commanding 92.5% market-implied probability for second-best AI model by end of June 2026 because its Claude Opus 4.8 and related frontier variants (Fable 5, Mythos) consistently rank immediately behind OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family on major benchmarks and the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard. Recent releases and iterative improvements have delivered leading scores in agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and SWE-bench-style tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.x models and others trail further back. With only twelve days remaining, no credible near-term launch or benchmark shift has emerged to disrupt this ordering. A last-minute Google or xAI capability jump, or an unexpected OpenAI regression on the resolution leaderboard, could theoretically alter the outcome, though such moves remain improbable given typical release cycles and current capability gaps.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$694,562End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic holds a commanding 92.5% market-implied probability for second-best AI model by end of June 2026 because its Claude Opus 4.8 and related frontier variants (Fable 5, Mythos) consistently rank immediately behind OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family on major benchmarks and the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard. Recent releases and iterative improvements have delivered leading scores in agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and SWE-bench-style tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.x models and others trail further back. With only twelve days remaining, no credible near-term launch or benchmark shift has emerged to disrupt this ordering. A last-minute Google or xAI capability jump, or an unexpected OpenAI regression on the resolution leaderboard, could theoretically alter the outcome, though such moves remain improbable given typical release cycles and current capability gaps.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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