Anthropic holds a commanding 66.5% implied probability of topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control On leaderboard by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release, which excelled in style adherence, advanced software engineering, and formatted reasoning tasks, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (April 23) and its May 5 Instant update. Google follows at 21% on Gemini's strong historical showings in scientific and coding benchmarks, positioning it as the primary challenger amid rapid iteration cycles. Lower odds for OpenAI (5.5%) and xAI (3%) reflect recent models' failure to overtake in this category, though traders eye volatility from unreleased large language models, funding announcements, or AI safety evaluations before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 67%
Google 21%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 3.0%
$1,449,417 Vol.
$1,449,417 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
67%
21%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
Meta
1%
Moonshot
1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 67%
Google 21%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 3.0%
$1,449,417 Vol.
$1,449,417 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$29,349 Vol.
67%
$17,981 Vol.
21%
OpenAI
$49,239 Vol.
6%
xAI
$14,817 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$201,040 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$136,025 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$412,801 Vol.
1%
Meta
$7,032 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$203,269 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$270,417 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$58,660 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$17,561 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$12,724 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$9,975 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$8,526 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds a commanding 66.5% implied probability of topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control On leaderboard by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release, which excelled in style adherence, advanced software engineering, and formatted reasoning tasks, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (April 23) and its May 5 Instant update. Google follows at 21% on Gemini's strong historical showings in scientific and coding benchmarks, positioning it as the primary challenger amid rapid iteration cycles. Lower odds for OpenAI (5.5%) and xAI (3%) reflect recent models' failure to overtake in this category, though traders eye volatility from unreleased large language models, funding announcements, or AI safety evaluations before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$1,449,417End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds a commanding 66.5% implied probability of topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control On leaderboard by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release, which excelled in style adherence, advanced software engineering, and formatted reasoning tasks, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (April 23) and its May 5 Instant update. Google follows at 21% on Gemini's strong historical showings in scientific and coding benchmarks, positioning it as the primary challenger amid rapid iteration cycles. Lower odds for OpenAI (5.5%) and xAI (3%) reflect recent models' failure to overtake in this category, though traders eye volatility from unreleased large language models, funding announcements, or AI safety evaluations before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$1,449,417End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic holds a commanding 66.5% implied probability of topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control On leaderboard by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release, which excelled in style adherence, advanced software engineering, and formatted reasoning tasks, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (April 23) and its May 5 Instant update. Google follows at 21% on Gemini's strong historical showings in scientific and coding benchmarks, positioning it as the primary challenger amid rapid iteration cycles. Lower odds for OpenAI (5.5%) and xAI (3%) reflect recent models' failure to overtake in this category, though traders eye volatility from unreleased large language models, funding announcements, or AI safety evaluations before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions