Recent model releases have kept the frontier AI race highly competitive, with Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 series posting leading scores on coding and agentic benchmarks such as SWE-bench, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.4 and GPT-5.5 variants excel in computer-use and autonomous task execution. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro leads in multimodal and scientific reasoning, and xAI’s Grok-4 remains close on real-time and general intelligence metrics. Performance across the top four U.S. labs now clusters within roughly 25 Elo points on human-preference leaderboards, shifting emphasis to reliability, cost, and domain-specific capabilities rather than raw benchmark dominance. Additional updates expected before year-end could further reorder rankings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$14,247 Vol.
77%
OpenAI
41%
xAI
21%
ByteDance
15%
Meta
14%
Z.ai
11%
DeepSeek
10%
Microsoft
10%
Alibaba
9%
Moonshot
9%
Baidu
9%
Amazon
9%
Mistral
8%
Meituan
7%
$14,247 Vol.
77%
OpenAI
41%
xAI
21%
ByteDance
15%
Meta
14%
Z.ai
11%
DeepSeek
10%
Microsoft
10%
Alibaba
9%
Moonshot
9%
Baidu
9%
Amazon
9%
Mistral
8%
Meituan
7%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent model releases have kept the frontier AI race highly competitive, with Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 series posting leading scores on coding and agentic benchmarks such as SWE-bench, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.4 and GPT-5.5 variants excel in computer-use and autonomous task execution. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro leads in multimodal and scientific reasoning, and xAI’s Grok-4 remains close on real-time and general intelligence metrics. Performance across the top four U.S. labs now clusters within roughly 25 Elo points on human-preference leaderboards, shifting emphasis to reliability, cost, and domain-specific capabilities rather than raw benchmark dominance. Additional updates expected before year-end could further reorder rankings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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