Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors claude-opus-4-6-thinking at 95.7% implied probability for topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard under Style Control Off on May 16, driven by its sustained #1 position with an Elo rating around 1502–1504—well ahead of claude-opus-4-6 (1497) and rivals like GPT-5.4 or Gemini 3.1 Pro. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking variant has dominated crowdsourced human preference battles for weeks, excelling in reasoning, coding, and long-context tasks without style adjustments that favor verbose models. Released in February 2026 and refined amid minor nerf concerns resolved by April, no new frontier large language models have emerged in the past 48 hours to challenge its lead. With resolution just three days away, only an surprise release from OpenAI, Google, or xAI—plus rapid battle accumulation—could realistically shift the leaderboard, though historical patterns suggest stability in late-stage markets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updatedclaude-opus-4-6-thinking 95.7%
Other 3.0%
claude-opus-4-6 2.1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
$24,112 Vol.
$24,112 Vol.
May 16, 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
96%
Other
3%
claude-opus-4-6
2%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
1%
claude-opus-4-7
1%
gemini-3-pro
<1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
<1%
gpt-5.5-high
<1%
muse-spark
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 95.7%
Other 3.0%
claude-opus-4-6 2.1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
$24,112 Vol.
$24,112 Vol.
May 16, 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$6,091 Vol.
96%
Other
$1,664 Vol.
3%
claude-opus-4-6
$1,526 Vol.
2%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$3,772 Vol.
1%
claude-opus-4-7
$4,614 Vol.
1%
gemini-3-pro
$1,475 Vol.
<1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$1,152 Vol.
<1%
gpt-5.5-high
$2,600 Vol.
<1%
muse-spark
$1,218 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors claude-opus-4-6-thinking at 95.7% implied probability for topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard under Style Control Off on May 16, driven by its sustained #1 position with an Elo rating around 1502–1504—well ahead of claude-opus-4-6 (1497) and rivals like GPT-5.4 or Gemini 3.1 Pro. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking variant has dominated crowdsourced human preference battles for weeks, excelling in reasoning, coding, and long-context tasks without style adjustments that favor verbose models. Released in February 2026 and refined amid minor nerf concerns resolved by April, no new frontier large language models have emerged in the past 48 hours to challenge its lead. With resolution just three days away, only an surprise release from OpenAI, Google, or xAI—plus rapid battle accumulation—could realistically shift the leaderboard, though historical patterns suggest stability in late-stage markets.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
Volume
$24,112End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors claude-opus-4-6-thinking at 95.7% implied probability for topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard under Style Control Off on May 16, driven by its sustained #1 position with an Elo rating around 1502–1504—well ahead of claude-opus-4-6 (1497) and rivals like GPT-5.4 or Gemini 3.1 Pro. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking variant has dominated crowdsourced human preference battles for weeks, excelling in reasoning, coding, and long-context tasks without style adjustments that favor verbose models. Released in February 2026 and refined amid minor nerf concerns resolved by April, no new frontier large language models have emerged in the past 48 hours to challenge its lead. With resolution just three days away, only an surprise release from OpenAI, Google, or xAI—plus rapid battle accumulation—could realistically shift the leaderboard, though historical patterns suggest stability in late-stage markets.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$24,112End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors claude-opus-4-6-thinking at 95.7% implied probability for topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard under Style Control Off on May 16, driven by its sustained #1 position with an Elo rating around 1502–1504—well ahead of claude-opus-4-6 (1497) and rivals like GPT-5.4 or Gemini 3.1 Pro. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking variant has dominated crowdsourced human preference battles for weeks, excelling in reasoning, coding, and long-context tasks without style adjustments that favor verbose models. Released in February 2026 and refined amid minor nerf concerns resolved by April, no new frontier large language models have emerged in the past 48 hours to challenge its lead. With resolution just three days away, only an surprise release from OpenAI, Google, or xAI—plus rapid battle accumulation—could realistically shift the leaderboard, though historical patterns suggest stability in late-stage markets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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