Anthropic's dominant 93.5% implied probability for a $600 billion-plus IPO closing market cap reflects trader consensus on its sustained AI leadership through Claude model releases and enterprise adoption. Major investments from Amazon and Google have fueled scaling of large language models, positioning the company competitively against OpenAI and others amid rapid AI sector growth. Strong demonstrated capabilities in safety-focused AI and strategic partnerships continue to drive valuation expectations. Realistic challenges include IPO delays beyond late 2027, intensified regulatory scrutiny on AI development, or shifts in competitive benchmarks that could alter funding momentum and market timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated600B+ 93.2%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 3.1%
400–600B 1.2%
<100B <1%
$420,313 Vol.
$420,313 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<100B
<1%
100–200B
<1%
200–300B
<1%
300–400B
<1%
400–600B
1%
600B+
93%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
3%
600B+ 93.2%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 3.1%
400–600B 1.2%
<100B <1%
$420,313 Vol.
$420,313 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<100B
$156,382 Vol.
<1%
100–200B
$72,886 Vol.
<1%
200–300B
$19,764 Vol.
<1%
300–400B
$69,735 Vol.
<1%
400–600B
$22,147 Vol.
1%
600B+
$46,174 Vol.
93%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$33,226 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Anthropic's dominant 93.5% implied probability for a $600 billion-plus IPO closing market cap reflects trader consensus on its sustained AI leadership through Claude model releases and enterprise adoption. Major investments from Amazon and Google have fueled scaling of large language models, positioning the company competitively against OpenAI and others amid rapid AI sector growth. Strong demonstrated capabilities in safety-focused AI and strategic partnerships continue to drive valuation expectations. Realistic challenges include IPO delays beyond late 2027, intensified regulatory scrutiny on AI development, or shifts in competitive benchmarks that could alter funding momentum and market timing.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 4, 2026, 1:21 PM ET
Volume
$420,313End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 4, 2026, 1:21 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Anthropic's dominant 93.5% implied probability for a $600 billion-plus IPO closing market cap reflects trader consensus on its sustained AI leadership through Claude model releases and enterprise adoption. Major investments from Amazon and Google have fueled scaling of large language models, positioning the company competitively against OpenAI and others amid rapid AI sector growth. Strong demonstrated capabilities in safety-focused AI and strategic partnerships continue to drive valuation expectations. Realistic challenges include IPO delays beyond late 2027, intensified regulatory scrutiny on AI development, or shifts in competitive benchmarks that could alter funding momentum and market timing.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$420,313End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 4, 2026, 1:21 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's dominant 93.5% implied probability for a $600 billion-plus IPO closing market cap reflects trader consensus on its sustained AI leadership through Claude model releases and enterprise adoption. Major investments from Amazon and Google have fueled scaling of large language models, positioning the company competitively against OpenAI and others amid rapid AI sector growth. Strong demonstrated capabilities in safety-focused AI and strategic partnerships continue to drive valuation expectations. Realistic challenges include IPO delays beyond late 2027, intensified regulatory scrutiny on AI development, or shifts in competitive benchmarks that could alter funding momentum and market timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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