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Claude 5 predictions & odds

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Claude 5 released by…?

Claude 5 released by…?

81%

September 30, 2026

$4M Vol.

$61.1K Liq.

204

Will Claude go down on __ days in May?

Will Claude go down on __ days in May?

30%

9-11

$33.4K Vol.

$12.7K Liq.

Ends in 17 days

Anthropic Claude score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

Anthropic Claude score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

52%

50%+

$61.9K Vol.

$1.8K Liq.

12

Ends in about 2 months

Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

17%

45%+

$283K Vol.

$6.0K Liq.

12

Ends in about 2 months

Best AI model on May 16? (Style Control Off)

Best AI model on May 16? (Style Control Off)

96%

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

$24.2K Vol.

$40.7K Liq.

Ends in 2 days

Claude Mythos released by…?

Claude Mythos released by…?

11%

June 30

$366K Vol.

$7.3K Liq.

19

Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?

Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?

27%

$11.6K Vol.

$4.5K Liq.

23

Counter-Strike: Golden Five vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group A

Counter-Strike: Golden Five vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group A

100%

LPH Gaming

$33.2K Vol.

Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Wildcard Gaming (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major Salt Lake City Group Stage

Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Wildcard Gaming (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major Salt Lake City Group Stage

52%

Five Fears

$6.2K Vol.

$19.3K Liq.

Ends in about 5 hours

Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

100%

Atreides

$1.8K Vol.

$32.2K Liq.

Ends in 14 minutes

Bordeaux (Doubles): Halys/Herbert vs Cukierman/Hilderbrand

Bordeaux (Doubles): Halys/Herbert vs Cukierman/Hilderbrand

50%

Cukierman/Hilderbrand

$0 Vol.

$106 Liq.

Ends in 8 days

GPT-5.6 released by...?

GPT-5.6 released by...?

94%

July 31

$39.7K Vol.

$25.4K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Counter-Strike: 5star vs FlyQuest (BO3) - Asian Champions League Group A

Counter-Strike: 5star vs FlyQuest (BO3) - Asian Champions League Group A

100%

5star

$26.5K Vol.

MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

88%

December 31, 2026

$3M Vol.

$7.9K Liq.

123

Ends in about 2 months

LA-05 House Election Winner

LA-05 House Election Winner

88%

Republican Party

$4.5K Vol.

$20.1K Liq.

Ends in 6 months

LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier Playoffs

LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier Playoffs

100%

LYON

$154K Vol.

Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs ENJOY (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs ENJOY (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

100%

CYBERSHOKE Prospects

$705 Vol.

Bordeaux (Doubles): Arneodo/Polmans vs Blancaneaux/Tabur

Bordeaux (Doubles): Arneodo/Polmans vs Blancaneaux/Tabur

50%

Blancaneaux/Tabur

$0 Vol.

$111 Liq.

Ends in 7 days

Counter-Strike: Clair Obscur vs Aurora Young Blood (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

Counter-Strike: Clair Obscur vs Aurora Young Blood (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

100%

Clair Obscur

$4.6K Vol.

$33.9K Liq.

Ends in 44 minutes

Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 5star (BO3) - Asian Champions League Group A

Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 5star (BO3) - Asian Champions League Group A

64%

TYLOO

$1 Vol.

$1.5K Liq.

Ends in about 14 hours

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Claude 5.

Polymarket currently hosts 108 active markets for Claude 5 that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Claude 5 released by…?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $7.2M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Counter-Strike: Golden Five vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group A”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Claude 5 released by…?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Claude 5 released by…?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 81% chance to September 30, 2026. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Claude 5 predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.