Anthropic's confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, and its targeting of a September or October debut have driven the 85.5% market-implied odds that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The company closed a massive $65 billion Series H round at a $965 billion valuation shortly before filing, positioning it for an earlier launch under bankers including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. In contrast, OpenAI filed days later but has since signaled a potential delay until 2027 amid valuation targets near $1 trillion and internal deliberations, as reported in late June. Traders see Anthropic's faster regulatory progress and clearer fall window as the decisive edge, though both firms face typical IPO risks like market conditions and SEC review timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic
86% chance
$280,714 Vol.
$280,714 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Anthropic
86% chance
$280,714 Vol.
$280,714 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, and its targeting of a September or October debut have driven the 85.5% market-implied odds that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The company closed a massive $65 billion Series H round at a $965 billion valuation shortly before filing, positioning it for an earlier launch under bankers including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. In contrast, OpenAI filed days later but has since signaled a potential delay until 2027 amid valuation targets near $1 trillion and internal deliberations, as reported in late June. Traders see Anthropic's faster regulatory progress and clearer fall window as the decisive edge, though both firms face typical IPO risks like market conditions and SEC review timelines.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$280,714End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, and its targeting of a September or October debut have driven the 85.5% market-implied odds that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The company closed a massive $65 billion Series H round at a $965 billion valuation shortly before filing, positioning it for an earlier launch under bankers including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. In contrast, OpenAI filed days later but has since signaled a potential delay until 2027 amid valuation targets near $1 trillion and internal deliberations, as reported in late June. Traders see Anthropic's faster regulatory progress and clearer fall window as the decisive edge, though both firms face typical IPO risks like market conditions and SEC review timelines.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$280,714End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, and its targeting of a September or October debut have driven the 85.5% market-implied odds that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The company closed a massive $65 billion Series H round at a $965 billion valuation shortly before filing, positioning it for an earlier launch under bankers including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. In contrast, OpenAI filed days later but has since signaled a potential delay until 2027 amid valuation targets near $1 trillion and internal deliberations, as reported in late June. Traders see Anthropic's faster regulatory progress and clearer fall window as the decisive edge, though both firms face typical IPO risks like market conditions and SEC review timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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