Anthropic’s earlier confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, and active preparations for a November Nasdaq listing underpin the 94.8% market-implied odds that it will reach public markets before OpenAI. Recent revenue acceleration toward $110 billion annualized run rate and underwriter meetings have kept Anthropic on a 2026 path despite minor delays, while OpenAI’s June filing has been followed by CEO Sam Altman’s explicit statements ruling out a 2026 debut to prioritize AI safety and alignment work. Trader consensus reflects OpenAI’s $1 trillion valuation target and heavy compute commitments creating internal friction. Key swing risks include market volatility forcing further Anthropic slippage or regulatory changes that could unexpectedly accelerate OpenAI’s timeline.