Recent FOMC actions and projections drive trader sentiment on Federal Reserve rate paths. At its September 16 meeting, the Committee raised the federal funds rate 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00 percent target range amid elevated inflation, with core PCE projected at 3.4 percent for 2026 and headline PCE at 3.7 percent. The updated dot plot shows a median endpoint of 4.1 percent by year-end, implying one additional hike, while GDP growth forecasts rose modestly to 2.3 percent and unemployment held near 4.1 percent. Market pricing in fed funds futures reflects an 88 percent chance of at least one more hike before December, shifting focus from easing to further tightening. Key upcoming catalysts include the October FOMC meeting, October employment and CPI releases, and any new communications from Chair Warsh on the inflation mandate.