The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over the $2.46 billion headquarters renovation remains the dominant factor keeping market-implied odds of federal charges near zero through year-end. A federal judge quashed related subpoenas in March after prosecutors conceded an absence of evidence beyond political friction over monetary policy, prompting referral to the Fed inspector general rather than indictment. Powell’s completed term as chair and ongoing board tenure through 2028 have produced no fresh catalysts, while the high evidentiary bar for perjury or fraud charges in this context reinforces trader consensus. Any inspector general findings or new congressional referrals could theoretically reopen scrutiny, though none have materialized since the probe’s termination.