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Keir predictions & odds

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Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

92%

Starmer - UK PM

$6M Vol.

$2M today

$976K Liq.

93

Ends in 6 months

Who will Trump publicly insult by June 30?

Who will Trump publicly insult by June 30?

23%

Jimmy Kimmel

$1M Vol.

$131K Liq.

Ends in 2 days

Next UK Foreign Secretary in 2026?

Next UK Foreign Secretary in 2026?

47%

No next Foreign Secretary in 2026

$59.0K Vol.

$205K Liq.

2

Ends in 6 months

Who will Trump speak to in June?

Who will Trump speak to in June?

15%

Mohammed bin Salman

$712K Vol.

$162K Liq.

Ends in 2 days

Who will Trump speak to in July?

Who will Trump speak to in July?

87%

Ursula von der Leyen

$10.1K Vol.

$138K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Who will Trump meet with in July?

Who will Trump meet with in July?

95%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

$9.8K Vol.

$72.8K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Candidates in next Labour leadership election?

Candidates in next Labour leadership election?

100%

Andy Burnham

$110K Vol.

$117K Liq.

8

Ends in 6 months

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

84%

Ahmed al-Sharaa

$680K Vol.

$180K Liq.

Ends in 6 months

Who will be in the Burnham cabinet?

Who will be in the Burnham cabinet?

95%

Louise Haigh

$21.2K Vol.

$105K Liq.

2

Ends in 6 months

Who will Trump meet with in June?

Who will Trump meet with in June?

2%

Elon Musk

$174K Vol.

$107K Liq.

Ends in 2 days

Starmer officially leaves office by…?

Starmer officially leaves office by…?

99%

July 31

$74.9K Vol.

$70.2K Liq.

6

Ends in about 1 month

Burnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest?

Burnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest?

95%

$15.4K Vol.

$20.7K Liq.

1

Ends in 6 months

No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?

No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?

1%

$69.5K Vol.

$17.7K Liq.

Ends in 2 days

Next UK Prime Minister appointed by…?

Next UK Prime Minister appointed by…?

99%

September 30

$60.9K Vol.

$105K Liq.

3

Ends in 3 months

UK social media ban in effect by…?

UK social media ban in effect by…?

62%

June 30, 2027

$151 Vol.

$2.5K Liq.

Ends in about 1 year

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Keir.

Polymarket currently hosts 15 active markets for Keir that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $9.4M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Burnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban),” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban),” where the crowd is currently assigning a 92% chance to Starmer - UK PM. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Keir predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.