Israel's airspace, restricted since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran ignited conflict on February 28, 2026, has avoided full closure amid a fragile ceasefire, with trader consensus pricing low odds for near-term shutdowns like by May 31. A May 4 high alert at Ben Gurion Airport spurred brief market jumps, but effective Iron Dome intercepts—nearly 99% against missiles per Rafael's chairman on May 11—have contained threats from Hezbollah drones in southern Lebanon, as reported May 12. Ongoing U.S.-mediated Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington this week and Iran's review of a U.S. peace proposal signal de-escalation efforts, though Strait of Hormuz tensions and proxy skirmishes pose risks of renewed airstrikes or evacuations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$771,876 Vol.
May 31, 2026
May 31
26%
June 30
38%
$771,876 Vol.
May 31
$274,507 Vol.
26%
June 30
$2,138 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's airspace, restricted since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran ignited conflict on February 28, 2026, has avoided full closure amid a fragile ceasefire, with trader consensus pricing low odds for near-term shutdowns like by May 31. A May 4 high alert at Ben Gurion Airport spurred brief market jumps, but effective Iron Dome intercepts—nearly 99% against missiles per Rafael's chairman on May 11—have contained threats from Hezbollah drones in southern Lebanon, as reported May 12. Ongoing U.S.-mediated Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington this week and Iran's review of a U.S. peace proposal signal de-escalation efforts, though Strait of Hormuz tensions and proxy skirmishes pose risks of renewed airstrikes or evacuations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volume
$771,876End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's airspace, restricted since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran ignited conflict on February 28, 2026, has avoided full closure amid a fragile ceasefire, with trader consensus pricing low odds for near-term shutdowns like by May 31. A May 4 high alert at Ben Gurion Airport spurred brief market jumps, but effective Iron Dome intercepts—nearly 99% against missiles per Rafael's chairman on May 11—have contained threats from Hezbollah drones in southern Lebanon, as reported May 12. Ongoing U.S.-mediated Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington this week and Iran's review of a U.S. peace proposal signal de-escalation efforts, though Strait of Hormuz tensions and proxy skirmishes pose risks of renewed airstrikes or evacuations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$771,876End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's airspace, restricted since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran ignited conflict on February 28, 2026, has avoided full closure amid a fragile ceasefire, with trader consensus pricing low odds for near-term shutdowns like by May 31. A May 4 high alert at Ben Gurion Airport spurred brief market jumps, but effective Iron Dome intercepts—nearly 99% against missiles per Rafael's chairman on May 11—have contained threats from Hezbollah drones in southern Lebanon, as reported May 12. Ongoing U.S.-mediated Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington this week and Iran's review of a U.S. peace proposal signal de-escalation efforts, though Strait of Hormuz tensions and proxy skirmishes pose risks of renewed airstrikes or evacuations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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