US-brokered direct talks between Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors in Washington, the first since 1993, have driven trader consensus to a 92% implied probability for an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31. Initial rounds occurred in mid-April amid a ten-day cessation of hostilities, laying groundwork for border security and peace negotiations despite Hezbollah opposition and recent Israeli strikes on Lebanese targets. A third round is scheduled for this week, signaling continued momentum in these rare face-to-face diplomatic efforts, though escalation risks or Hezbollah pressure could disrupt progress before the deadline. Traders reflect skin-in-the-game confidence in the talks' trajectory, outweighing short-term tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?
$147,380 Vol.
$147,380 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$147,380 Vol.
$147,380 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.US-brokered direct talks between Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors in Washington, the first since 1993, have driven trader consensus to a 92% implied probability for an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31. Initial rounds occurred in mid-April amid a ten-day cessation of hostilities, laying groundwork for border security and peace negotiations despite Hezbollah opposition and recent Israeli strikes on Lebanese targets. A third round is scheduled for this week, signaling continued momentum in these rare face-to-face diplomatic efforts, though escalation risks or Hezbollah pressure could disrupt progress before the deadline. Traders reflect skin-in-the-game confidence in the talks' trajectory, outweighing short-term tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 5:00 PM ET
Volume
$147,380End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.US-brokered direct talks between Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors in Washington, the first since 1993, have driven trader consensus to a 92% implied probability for an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31. Initial rounds occurred in mid-April amid a ten-day cessation of hostilities, laying groundwork for border security and peace negotiations despite Hezbollah opposition and recent Israeli strikes on Lebanese targets. A third round is scheduled for this week, signaling continued momentum in these rare face-to-face diplomatic efforts, though escalation risks or Hezbollah pressure could disrupt progress before the deadline. Traders reflect skin-in-the-game confidence in the talks' trajectory, outweighing short-term tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$151,323End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-brokered direct talks between Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors in Washington, the first since 1993, have driven trader consensus to a 92% implied probability for an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31. Initial rounds occurred in mid-April amid a ten-day cessation of hostilities, laying groundwork for border security and peace negotiations despite Hezbollah opposition and recent Israeli strikes on Lebanese targets. A third round is scheduled for this week, signaling continued momentum in these rare face-to-face diplomatic efforts, though escalation risks or Hezbollah pressure could disrupt progress before the deadline. Traders reflect skin-in-the-game confidence in the talks' trajectory, outweighing short-term tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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