U.S. retail regular gasoline prices reached a national average of $4.50 per gallon for the week ending May 11, per the latest EIA data, up 4.8 cents week-over-week and reflecting a 42-cent monthly surge driven by WTI crude oil at $101.56 per barrel—elevated by Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions from the ongoing Iran conflict and domestic refinery outages. Declining crude inventories by 4.3 million barrels and falling gasoline stocks have tightened near-term supply, while refinery inputs rose modestly to 16.4 million barrels per day. Approaching Memorial Day weekend signals peak summer driving demand, historically lifting consumption 5-10%, compounded by summer blend gasoline transitions. Traders eye the May 19 EIA gasoline and diesel update plus weekly petroleum inventories for resolution risks through May 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$139,572 Vol.
May 31, 2026
↑ $5.00
22%
↑ $4.70
49%
↑ $4.60
60%
↓ $4.25
14%
↓ $4.20
17%
↓ $4.10
14%
↓ $4.00
10%
↓ $3.75
4%
↓ $3.50
2%
$139,572 Vol.
↑ $5.00
$21,290 Vol.
22%
↑ $4.70
$11,298 Vol.
49%
↑ $4.60
$11,492 Vol.
60%
↓ $4.25
$2,464 Vol.
14%
↓ $4.20
$1,860 Vol.
17%
↓ $4.10
$774 Vol.
14%
↓ $4.00
$884 Vol.
10%
↓ $3.75
$1,486 Vol.
4%
↓ $3.50
$6,945 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".U.S. retail regular gasoline prices reached a national average of $4.50 per gallon for the week ending May 11, per the latest EIA data, up 4.8 cents week-over-week and reflecting a 42-cent monthly surge driven by WTI crude oil at $101.56 per barrel—elevated by Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions from the ongoing Iran conflict and domestic refinery outages. Declining crude inventories by 4.3 million barrels and falling gasoline stocks have tightened near-term supply, while refinery inputs rose modestly to 16.4 million barrels per day. Approaching Memorial Day weekend signals peak summer driving demand, historically lifting consumption 5-10%, compounded by summer blend gasoline transitions. Traders eye the May 19 EIA gasoline and diesel update plus weekly petroleum inventories for resolution risks through May 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 2:26 PM ET
Volume
$139,572End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".U.S. retail regular gasoline prices reached a national average of $4.50 per gallon for the week ending May 11, per the latest EIA data, up 4.8 cents week-over-week and reflecting a 42-cent monthly surge driven by WTI crude oil at $101.56 per barrel—elevated by Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions from the ongoing Iran conflict and domestic refinery outages. Declining crude inventories by 4.3 million barrels and falling gasoline stocks have tightened near-term supply, while refinery inputs rose modestly to 16.4 million barrels per day. Approaching Memorial Day weekend signals peak summer driving demand, historically lifting consumption 5-10%, compounded by summer blend gasoline transitions. Traders eye the May 19 EIA gasoline and diesel update plus weekly petroleum inventories for resolution risks through May 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$139,572End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. retail regular gasoline prices reached a national average of $4.50 per gallon for the week ending May 11, per the latest EIA data, up 4.8 cents week-over-week and reflecting a 42-cent monthly surge driven by WTI crude oil at $101.56 per barrel—elevated by Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions from the ongoing Iran conflict and domestic refinery outages. Declining crude inventories by 4.3 million barrels and falling gasoline stocks have tightened near-term supply, while refinery inputs rose modestly to 16.4 million barrels per day. Approaching Memorial Day weekend signals peak summer driving demand, historically lifting consumption 5-10%, compounded by summer blend gasoline transitions. Traders eye the May 19 EIA gasoline and diesel update plus weekly petroleum inventories for resolution risks through May 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions