The United Arab Emirates' withdrawal from OPEC effective May 1, following its April 28 announcement amid frustrations over production quotas and regional tensions including Iran-related risks, has already marked one exit in 2026, prompting traders to price low odds for another departure at 30.5% Yes. Remaining members, led by Saudi Arabia and Iraq, reaffirmed cohesion through OPEC+ ministerial decisions on May 3 to adjust production levels for market stability, with no official statements from Nigeria, Kazakhstan, or Congo signaling intent to quit despite speculation on quota pressures. Ongoing virtual meetings and steady oil prices reinforce the cartel's unity, though year-end geopolitical shifts or price crashes could test resolve.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
$92,008 Vol.
$92,008 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$92,008 Vol.
$92,008 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The United Arab Emirates' withdrawal from OPEC effective May 1, following its April 28 announcement amid frustrations over production quotas and regional tensions including Iran-related risks, has already marked one exit in 2026, prompting traders to price low odds for another departure at 30.5% Yes. Remaining members, led by Saudi Arabia and Iraq, reaffirmed cohesion through OPEC+ ministerial decisions on May 3 to adjust production levels for market stability, with no official statements from Nigeria, Kazakhstan, or Congo signaling intent to quit despite speculation on quota pressures. Ongoing virtual meetings and steady oil prices reinforce the cartel's unity, though year-end geopolitical shifts or price crashes could test resolve.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$92,008End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The United Arab Emirates' withdrawal from OPEC effective May 1, following its April 28 announcement amid frustrations over production quotas and regional tensions including Iran-related risks, has already marked one exit in 2026, prompting traders to price low odds for another departure at 30.5% Yes. Remaining members, led by Saudi Arabia and Iraq, reaffirmed cohesion through OPEC+ ministerial decisions on May 3 to adjust production levels for market stability, with no official statements from Nigeria, Kazakhstan, or Congo signaling intent to quit despite speculation on quota pressures. Ongoing virtual meetings and steady oil prices reinforce the cartel's unity, though year-end geopolitical shifts or price crashes could test resolve.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$92,008End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United Arab Emirates' withdrawal from OPEC effective May 1, following its April 28 announcement amid frustrations over production quotas and regional tensions including Iran-related risks, has already marked one exit in 2026, prompting traders to price low odds for another departure at 30.5% Yes. Remaining members, led by Saudi Arabia and Iraq, reaffirmed cohesion through OPEC+ ministerial decisions on May 3 to adjust production levels for market stability, with no official statements from Nigeria, Kazakhstan, or Congo signaling intent to quit despite speculation on quota pressures. Ongoing virtual meetings and steady oil prices reinforce the cartel's unity, though year-end geopolitical shifts or price crashes could test resolve.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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