**No other OPEC member has signaled an exit following the UAE’s departure effective May 1, 2026.** OPEC now comprises 11 countries, with core producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Kuwait maintaining coordinated output policies through OPEC+ frameworks. Recent ministerial meetings and voluntary production adjustments into 2026 have emphasized market stability without reported quota disputes prompting further withdrawals. Angola’s 2024 exit and the UAE’s move reflected specific capacity and quota tensions, yet no comparable announcements or diplomatic friction have emerged among remaining members since May. Traders assign only a 9.5% chance of another departure by year-end, consistent with the absence of new official statements or shifts in national energy strategies that would alter membership status before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
9% chance
$159,687 Vol.
$159,687 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
9% chance
$159,687 Vol.
$159,687 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**No other OPEC member has signaled an exit following the UAE’s departure effective May 1, 2026.** OPEC now comprises 11 countries, with core producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Kuwait maintaining coordinated output policies through OPEC+ frameworks. Recent ministerial meetings and voluntary production adjustments into 2026 have emphasized market stability without reported quota disputes prompting further withdrawals. Angola’s 2024 exit and the UAE’s move reflected specific capacity and quota tensions, yet no comparable announcements or diplomatic friction have emerged among remaining members since May. Traders assign only a 9.5% chance of another departure by year-end, consistent with the absence of new official statements or shifts in national energy strategies that would alter membership status before December 31.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$159,687End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**No other OPEC member has signaled an exit following the UAE’s departure effective May 1, 2026.** OPEC now comprises 11 countries, with core producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Kuwait maintaining coordinated output policies through OPEC+ frameworks. Recent ministerial meetings and voluntary production adjustments into 2026 have emphasized market stability without reported quota disputes prompting further withdrawals. Angola’s 2024 exit and the UAE’s move reflected specific capacity and quota tensions, yet no comparable announcements or diplomatic friction have emerged among remaining members since May. Traders assign only a 9.5% chance of another departure by year-end, consistent with the absence of new official statements or shifts in national energy strategies that would alter membership status before December 31.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$159,687End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No other OPEC member has signaled an exit following the UAE’s departure effective May 1, 2026.** OPEC now comprises 11 countries, with core producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Kuwait maintaining coordinated output policies through OPEC+ frameworks. Recent ministerial meetings and voluntary production adjustments into 2026 have emphasized market stability without reported quota disputes prompting further withdrawals. Angola’s 2024 exit and the UAE’s move reflected specific capacity and quota tensions, yet no comparable announcements or diplomatic friction have emerged among remaining members since May. Traders assign only a 9.5% chance of another departure by year-end, consistent with the absence of new official statements or shifts in national energy strategies that would alter membership status before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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