Traders assign a 99.1% probability to “No” on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because U.S.-Iran nuclear talks have stalled since the June 2026 memorandum of understanding expired without a final accord. That interim framework called for IAEA-supervised down-blending of Iran’s enriched stockpile and discussions on enrichment limits, yet Iran has maintained its position that any curbs must align with its civilian nuclear needs and has resisted full IAEA access to key enrichment sites. Recent IAEA reporting confirms limited verification activity at power reactors but no resumption of enrichment or breakthrough on suspension terms. With only days remaining before the deadline and no scheduled high-level meetings, the consensus reflects entrenched positions on both sides. A last-minute diplomatic concession or surprise bilateral announcement could theoretically shift the outcome, though such developments lack supporting signals in current reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
<1% chance
$73,907 Vol.
$73,907 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<1% chance
$73,907 Vol.
$73,907 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 99.1% probability to “No” on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because U.S.-Iran nuclear talks have stalled since the June 2026 memorandum of understanding expired without a final accord. That interim framework called for IAEA-supervised down-blending of Iran’s enriched stockpile and discussions on enrichment limits, yet Iran has maintained its position that any curbs must align with its civilian nuclear needs and has resisted full IAEA access to key enrichment sites. Recent IAEA reporting confirms limited verification activity at power reactors but no resumption of enrichment or breakthrough on suspension terms. With only days remaining before the deadline and no scheduled high-level meetings, the consensus reflects entrenched positions on both sides. A last-minute diplomatic concession or surprise bilateral announcement could theoretically shift the outcome, though such developments lack supporting signals in current reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Volume
$73,907End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 99.1% probability to “No” on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because U.S.-Iran nuclear talks have stalled since the June 2026 memorandum of understanding expired without a final accord. That interim framework called for IAEA-supervised down-blending of Iran’s enriched stockpile and discussions on enrichment limits, yet Iran has maintained its position that any curbs must align with its civilian nuclear needs and has resisted full IAEA access to key enrichment sites. Recent IAEA reporting confirms limited verification activity at power reactors but no resumption of enrichment or breakthrough on suspension terms. With only days remaining before the deadline and no scheduled high-level meetings, the consensus reflects entrenched positions on both sides. A last-minute diplomatic concession or surprise bilateral announcement could theoretically shift the outcome, though such developments lack supporting signals in current reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$73,907End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.1% probability to “No” on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because U.S.-Iran nuclear talks have stalled since the June 2026 memorandum of understanding expired without a final accord. That interim framework called for IAEA-supervised down-blending of Iran’s enriched stockpile and discussions on enrichment limits, yet Iran has maintained its position that any curbs must align with its civilian nuclear needs and has resisted full IAEA access to key enrichment sites. Recent IAEA reporting confirms limited verification activity at power reactors but no resumption of enrichment or breakthrough on suspension terms. With only days remaining before the deadline and no scheduled high-level meetings, the consensus reflects entrenched positions on both sides. A last-minute diplomatic concession or surprise bilateral announcement could theoretically shift the outcome, though such developments lack supporting signals in current reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions