Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?
Politics·Iran

Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?

icon for Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?
Politics·Iran

Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?

2% chance
Polymarket

$20,915 Vol.

2% chance
Polymarket

$20,915 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump Administration submits a 48-hour report consistent with the War Powers Resolution regarding the introduction of U.S. armed forces into hostilities or imminent hostilities in Yemen or against the Houthis between the date of market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The market will resolve based on the date of the report, not the date of publication. This market will remain open for 14 days after the specified date (ET) to allow for a qualifying report to be published. If no such report is published by that time, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be the White House, the Congressional Record, and the NYU Law War Powers Resolution Reporting Project; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s administration has maintained a hands-off stance toward direct U.S. military involvement in Yemen’s Houthi-Saudi fighting, providing intelligence support to partners while declining Saudi requests for strikes and engaging in direct contacts with Houthis. This restraint occurs against the backdrop of an ongoing, congressionally contested conflict with Iran, repeated House war powers resolutions limiting executive action, and midterm election pressures favoring de-escalation. Recent statements from Trump and Vice President Vance emphasize monitoring without new commitments, consistent with prior patterns of avoiding expanded hostilities in Yemen. Trader consensus at 98.4% for no invocation by September 30 reflects these constraints, though a major Houthi threat to U.S. shipping or personnel could still prompt rapid reassessment within the narrow window.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump Administration submits a 48-hour report consistent with the War Powers Resolution regarding the introduction of U.S. armed forces into hostilities or imminent hostilities in Yemen or against the Houthis between the date of market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The market will resolve based on the date of the report, not the date of publication. This market will remain open for 14 days after the specified date (ET) to allow for a qualifying report to be published. If no such report is published by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be the White House, the Congressional Record, and the NYU Law War Powers Resolution Reporting Project; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump Administration submits a 48-hour report consistent with the War Powers Resolution regarding the introduction of U.S. armed forces into hostilities or imminent hostilities in Yemen or against the Houthis between the date of market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The market will resolve based on the date of the report, not the date of publication. This market will remain open for 14 days after the specified date (ET) to allow for a qualifying report to be published. If no such report is published by that time, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be the White House, the Congressional Record, and the NYU Law War Powers Resolution Reporting Project; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$20,915
End Date
Oct 1, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump Administration submits a 48-hour report consistent with the War Powers Resolution regarding the introduction of U.S. armed forces into hostilities or imminent hostilities in Yemen or against the Houthis between the date of market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The market will resolve based on the date of the report, not the date of publication. This market will remain open for 14 days after the specified date (ET) to allow for a qualifying report to be published. If no such report is published by that time, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be the White House, the Congressional Record, and the NYU Law War Powers Resolution Reporting Project; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s administration has maintained a hands-off stance toward direct U.S. military involvement in Yemen’s Houthi-Saudi fighting, providing intelligence support to partners while declining Saudi requests for strikes and engaging in direct contacts with Houthis. This restraint occurs against the backdrop of an ongoing, congressionally contested conflict with Iran, repeated House war powers resolutions limiting executive action, and midterm election pressures favoring de-escalation. Recent statements from Trump and Vice President Vance emphasize monitoring without new commitments, consistent with prior patterns of avoiding expanded hostilities in Yemen. Trader consensus at 98.4% for no invocation by September 30 reflects these constraints, though a major Houthi threat to U.S. shipping or personnel could still prompt rapid reassessment within the narrow window.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump Administration submits a 48-hour report consistent with the War Powers Resolution regarding the introduction of U.S. armed forces into hostilities or imminent hostilities in Yemen or against the Houthis between the date of market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The market will resolve based on the date of the report, not the date of publication. This market will remain open for 14 days after the specified date (ET) to allow for a qualifying report to be published. If no such report is published by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be the White House, the Congressional Record, and the NYU Law War Powers Resolution Reporting Project; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump Administration submits a 48-hour report consistent with the War Powers Resolution regarding the introduction of U.S. armed forces into hostilities or imminent hostilities in Yemen or against the Houthis between the date of market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The market will resolve based on the date of the report, not the date of publication. This market will remain open for 14 days after the specified date (ET) to allow for a qualifying report to be published. If no such report is published by that time, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be the White House, the Congressional Record, and the NYU Law War Powers Resolution Reporting Project; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$20,915
End Date
Oct 1, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Related

icon for Will Trump say "TikTok" or "ByteDance" in September?

Will Trump say "TikTok" or "ByteDance" in September?

97%
icon for Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in September?

Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in September?

66%
icon for Trump out as President by September 30?

Trump out as President by September 30?

1%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 2% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 2¢, the market collectively assigns a 2% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?" has generated $20.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?" is 2% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 2% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.