Ongoing US-Iran tensions from the 2026 conflict, which began with American and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in February and triggered Iranian missile and drone barrages against Gulf states including the UAE, remain the primary driver of trader focus. UAE officials, including presidential adviser Anwar Gargash, have highlighted recent Qatari-mediated indirect talks and a new Iranian nuclear proposal to Washington, while warning of prolonged uncertainty and the difficulty of a comprehensive settlement. The UAE has strengthened air defenses, pursued diplomatic engagement with Tehran, and suspended trade ties after prior Iranian projectiles landed near its territory. No direct Iranian strikes on the UAE have occurred in recent months, but statements from both sides underscore risks of renewed escalation if negotiations stall or US actions intensify. Upcoming diplomatic milestones and any shifts in US posture could influence probabilities.