US sanctions intensification, renewed military exchanges, and a reinstated naval blockade have driven the Iranian rial to record lows near 2.2 million per USD on the free market in early September 2026, with the currency having lost roughly 60 percent of its value since March amid restricted oil exports and severed financial channels. Central Bank interventions, including pledges of up to $2 billion in foreign exchange, have so far failed to reverse the slide fueled by inflation above 60 percent and psychological market pressure. With roughly four months until year-end, the closely matched probabilities across the 2.0–3.0 million range reflect trader uncertainty over whether sustained US economic measures will push rates higher or whether de-escalation in the conflict and any revival of prior diplomatic understandings could stabilize or modestly strengthen the rial. Upcoming sanctions announcements and developments in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain key near-term catalysts.