Heightened Houthi territorial gains around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and southern Red Sea coastline have elevated risks to tanker traffic, driving a geopolitical risk premium into Brent crude and widening tanker insurance spreads. Recent weeks saw multiple attempted strikes on vessels, including explosions near a tanker south of Mokha on November 11, alongside Houthi missile activity targeting Saudi Aramco infrastructure that contributed to short-term oil price volatility above $100 per barrel. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing attacks—37 vessels hit in October alone—yet distinguish between strikes and outright seizures, with Houthis maintaining a declared focus on Saudi-linked shipping while government and Saudi-backed forces launch counteroffensives to reclaim coastal positions. Key near-term catalysts include resolution of the latest Yemeni military push and any shifts in Strait of Hormuz tensions that could alter rerouting volumes or freight rates.