Ongoing US-Iran negotiations over a potential nuclear agreement have created a closely balanced market, with recent diplomatic exchanges in May 2026 centering on a US proposal for sanctions relief and curbs on uranium enrichment in exchange for ending regional tensions. Iran has indicated willingness to discuss downblending its stockpile and limits on future enrichment levels while reaffirming its right to a civilian nuclear program, yet key gaps remain over the duration of any moratorium and verification measures. These developments, following earlier rounds in Geneva and Islamabad, reflect trader assessments of incremental progress alongside entrenched positions on both sides. Scheduled responses to the latest memorandum and further talks could shift probabilities depending on whether concrete commitments on enrichment suspension emerge before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$194,984 Vol.
$194,984 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$194,984 Vol.
$194,984 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations over a potential nuclear agreement have created a closely balanced market, with recent diplomatic exchanges in May 2026 centering on a US proposal for sanctions relief and curbs on uranium enrichment in exchange for ending regional tensions. Iran has indicated willingness to discuss downblending its stockpile and limits on future enrichment levels while reaffirming its right to a civilian nuclear program, yet key gaps remain over the duration of any moratorium and verification measures. These developments, following earlier rounds in Geneva and Islamabad, reflect trader assessments of incremental progress alongside entrenched positions on both sides. Scheduled responses to the latest memorandum and further talks could shift probabilities depending on whether concrete commitments on enrichment suspension emerge before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$194,984End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations over a potential nuclear agreement have created a closely balanced market, with recent diplomatic exchanges in May 2026 centering on a US proposal for sanctions relief and curbs on uranium enrichment in exchange for ending regional tensions. Iran has indicated willingness to discuss downblending its stockpile and limits on future enrichment levels while reaffirming its right to a civilian nuclear program, yet key gaps remain over the duration of any moratorium and verification measures. These developments, following earlier rounds in Geneva and Islamabad, reflect trader assessments of incremental progress alongside entrenched positions on both sides. Scheduled responses to the latest memorandum and further talks could shift probabilities depending on whether concrete commitments on enrichment suspension emerge before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$194,984End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran negotiations over a potential nuclear agreement have created a closely balanced market, with recent diplomatic exchanges in May 2026 centering on a US proposal for sanctions relief and curbs on uranium enrichment in exchange for ending regional tensions. Iran has indicated willingness to discuss downblending its stockpile and limits on future enrichment levels while reaffirming its right to a civilian nuclear program, yet key gaps remain over the duration of any moratorium and verification measures. These developments, following earlier rounds in Geneva and Islamabad, reflect trader assessments of incremental progress alongside entrenched positions on both sides. Scheduled responses to the latest memorandum and further talks could shift probabilities depending on whether concrete commitments on enrichment suspension emerge before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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