Iran's position that uranium enrichment remains a sovereign right for civilian nuclear energy, reinforced by its refusal to commit to full cessation in the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, underpins the 87.5% trader consensus against an agreement by December 31. That interim accord deferred enrichment limits and stockpile disposition to further talks while requiring only IAEA-supervised down-blending discussions and reaffirming Iran's non-weapons pledge. September 2026 IAEA Board statements and Quad remarks highlight ongoing barriers, including denied inspector access to enrichment sites since June and unresolved visibility over highly enriched uranium stockpiles. These verification gaps and Iran's historical negotiating stance on enrichment capacity have kept probabilities stable despite the short timeline to year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
13% chance
$1,726,421 Vol.
$1,726,421 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
13% chance
$1,726,421 Vol.
$1,726,421 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's position that uranium enrichment remains a sovereign right for civilian nuclear energy, reinforced by its refusal to commit to full cessation in the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, underpins the 87.5% trader consensus against an agreement by December 31. That interim accord deferred enrichment limits and stockpile disposition to further talks while requiring only IAEA-supervised down-blending discussions and reaffirming Iran's non-weapons pledge. September 2026 IAEA Board statements and Quad remarks highlight ongoing barriers, including denied inspector access to enrichment sites since June and unresolved visibility over highly enriched uranium stockpiles. These verification gaps and Iran's historical negotiating stance on enrichment capacity have kept probabilities stable despite the short timeline to year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,726,421End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's position that uranium enrichment remains a sovereign right for civilian nuclear energy, reinforced by its refusal to commit to full cessation in the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, underpins the 87.5% trader consensus against an agreement by December 31. That interim accord deferred enrichment limits and stockpile disposition to further talks while requiring only IAEA-supervised down-blending discussions and reaffirming Iran's non-weapons pledge. September 2026 IAEA Board statements and Quad remarks highlight ongoing barriers, including denied inspector access to enrichment sites since June and unresolved visibility over highly enriched uranium stockpiles. These verification gaps and Iran's historical negotiating stance on enrichment capacity have kept probabilities stable despite the short timeline to year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,726,421End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's position that uranium enrichment remains a sovereign right for civilian nuclear energy, reinforced by its refusal to commit to full cessation in the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, underpins the 87.5% trader consensus against an agreement by December 31. That interim accord deferred enrichment limits and stockpile disposition to further talks while requiring only IAEA-supervised down-blending discussions and reaffirming Iran's non-weapons pledge. September 2026 IAEA Board statements and Quad remarks highlight ongoing barriers, including denied inspector access to enrichment sites since June and unresolved visibility over highly enriched uranium stockpiles. These verification gaps and Iran's historical negotiating stance on enrichment capacity have kept probabilities stable despite the short timeline to year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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