Iran’s failure to conclude a final nuclear accord following the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has anchored trader expectations against any agreement to halt uranium enrichment by year-end. The 60-day negotiation window expired without resolution on stockpile down-blending or enrichment limits, after which U.S. officials declared the interim framework over and Iran responded with reciprocal steps. IAEA verification access remains blocked at key sites, prompting the Agency’s September 2026 Board referral of Iran’s safeguards non-compliance to the UN Security Council. Recent Iranian signals favor restoring the original MOU terms without new nuclear concessions, underscoring Tehran’s consistent position that enrichment falls within its sovereign rights. These stalled diplomatic tracks and verification gaps sustain the market’s strong lean toward no agreement materializing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
13% chance
$1,755,447 Vol.
$1,755,447 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
13% chance
$1,755,447 Vol.
$1,755,447 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s failure to conclude a final nuclear accord following the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has anchored trader expectations against any agreement to halt uranium enrichment by year-end. The 60-day negotiation window expired without resolution on stockpile down-blending or enrichment limits, after which U.S. officials declared the interim framework over and Iran responded with reciprocal steps. IAEA verification access remains blocked at key sites, prompting the Agency’s September 2026 Board referral of Iran’s safeguards non-compliance to the UN Security Council. Recent Iranian signals favor restoring the original MOU terms without new nuclear concessions, underscoring Tehran’s consistent position that enrichment falls within its sovereign rights. These stalled diplomatic tracks and verification gaps sustain the market’s strong lean toward no agreement materializing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,755,447End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s failure to conclude a final nuclear accord following the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has anchored trader expectations against any agreement to halt uranium enrichment by year-end. The 60-day negotiation window expired without resolution on stockpile down-blending or enrichment limits, after which U.S. officials declared the interim framework over and Iran responded with reciprocal steps. IAEA verification access remains blocked at key sites, prompting the Agency’s September 2026 Board referral of Iran’s safeguards non-compliance to the UN Security Council. Recent Iranian signals favor restoring the original MOU terms without new nuclear concessions, underscoring Tehran’s consistent position that enrichment falls within its sovereign rights. These stalled diplomatic tracks and verification gaps sustain the market’s strong lean toward no agreement materializing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,755,447End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s failure to conclude a final nuclear accord following the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has anchored trader expectations against any agreement to halt uranium enrichment by year-end. The 60-day negotiation window expired without resolution on stockpile down-blending or enrichment limits, after which U.S. officials declared the interim framework over and Iran responded with reciprocal steps. IAEA verification access remains blocked at key sites, prompting the Agency’s September 2026 Board referral of Iran’s safeguards non-compliance to the UN Security Council. Recent Iranian signals favor restoring the original MOU terms without new nuclear concessions, underscoring Tehran’s consistent position that enrichment falls within its sovereign rights. These stalled diplomatic tracks and verification gaps sustain the market’s strong lean toward no agreement materializing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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