Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, degrading capacity and leaving much of the enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible or buried. The IAEA’s June 4, 2026 report noted little change from pre-war assessments, with inspectors lacking access to facilities and unable to verify the location or status of near-weapons-grade material. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks, including recent interim understandings, focus on further limits and verification, while no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization activity has occurred. These factors sustain trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% “No” odds against a nuclear test before 2027.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$218,741 Vol.
$218,741 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$218,741 Vol.
$218,741 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, degrading capacity and leaving much of the enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible or buried. The IAEA’s June 4, 2026 report noted little change from pre-war assessments, with inspectors lacking access to facilities and unable to verify the location or status of near-weapons-grade material. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks, including recent interim understandings, focus on further limits and verification, while no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization activity has occurred. These factors sustain trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% “No” odds against a nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$218,741Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, degrading capacity and leaving much of the enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible or buried. The IAEA’s June 4, 2026 report noted little change from pre-war assessments, with inspectors lacking access to facilities and unable to verify the location or status of near-weapons-grade material. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks, including recent interim understandings, focus on further limits and verification, while no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization activity has occurred. These factors sustain trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% “No” odds against a nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$218,741Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, degrading capacity and leaving much of the enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible or buried. The IAEA’s June 4, 2026 report noted little change from pre-war assessments, with inspectors lacking access to facilities and unable to verify the location or status of near-weapons-grade material. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks, including recent interim understandings, focus on further limits and verification, while no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization activity has occurred. These factors sustain trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% “No” odds against a nuclear test before 2027.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong