US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear program has seen limited new damage amid ongoing conflict but remains stalled, requiring around one year to produce a weapon following 2025 strikes that obliterated key facilities like Natanz. No resumption of high-level uranium enrichment has been detected per Director of National Intelligence testimony, and IAEA reports confirm no structured weaponization efforts. Recent progress in US-Iran negotiations, highlighted by Vice President Vance on May 13, further eases escalation risks before 2027. Traders' 91% "No" consensus reflects this degraded capacity and diplomatic de-escalation, though covert breakthroughs or failed talks could prompt a rapid shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$191,714 Vol.
$191,714 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$191,714 Vol.
$191,714 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear program has seen limited new damage amid ongoing conflict but remains stalled, requiring around one year to produce a weapon following 2025 strikes that obliterated key facilities like Natanz. No resumption of high-level uranium enrichment has been detected per Director of National Intelligence testimony, and IAEA reports confirm no structured weaponization efforts. Recent progress in US-Iran negotiations, highlighted by Vice President Vance on May 13, further eases escalation risks before 2027. Traders' 91% "No" consensus reflects this degraded capacity and diplomatic de-escalation, though covert breakthroughs or failed talks could prompt a rapid shift.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$191,714End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear program has seen limited new damage amid ongoing conflict but remains stalled, requiring around one year to produce a weapon following 2025 strikes that obliterated key facilities like Natanz. No resumption of high-level uranium enrichment has been detected per Director of National Intelligence testimony, and IAEA reports confirm no structured weaponization efforts. Recent progress in US-Iran negotiations, highlighted by Vice President Vance on May 13, further eases escalation risks before 2027. Traders' 91% "No" consensus reflects this degraded capacity and diplomatic de-escalation, though covert breakthroughs or failed talks could prompt a rapid shift.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$191,714End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear program has seen limited new damage amid ongoing conflict but remains stalled, requiring around one year to produce a weapon following 2025 strikes that obliterated key facilities like Natanz. No resumption of high-level uranium enrichment has been detected per Director of National Intelligence testimony, and IAEA reports confirm no structured weaponization efforts. Recent progress in US-Iran negotiations, highlighted by Vice President Vance on May 13, further eases escalation risks before 2027. Traders' 91% "No" consensus reflects this degraded capacity and diplomatic de-escalation, though covert breakthroughs or failed talks could prompt a rapid shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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