Iran’s nuclear infrastructure sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, rendering key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan largely inoperable and burying significant stockpiles of highly enriched uranium in collapsed tunnels. IAEA inspectors have faced restricted access since mid-2025, leaving the status of remaining material and any reconstitution efforts unverified amid ongoing sanctions and explicit threats of renewed military action should red lines be crossed. Internal Iranian debates about pursuing nuclear deterrence have surfaced publicly, yet official policy continues to reject weaponization, and no verified steps toward device assembly or testing have emerged. This combination of physical setbacks, verification gaps, and deterrence pressures underpins trader consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027. A sudden policy reversal, rapid recovery of buried assets, or major de-escalation in external threats remain the primary variables that could alter the outlook.