The U.S. nuclear testing moratorium since 1992 remains in place amid ongoing diplomatic friction over alleged low-yield Chinese and Russian activities at sites like Lop Nur. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to test “on an equal basis” prompted immediate clarification from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and NNSA officials that planned activities involve subcritical or non-critical system checks rather than yield-producing explosive detonations. Stockpile stewardship certifications continue without indicating any technical requirement for explosive tests, while resumption timelines under prior directives extend to 36 months. Trader pricing on related Polymarket contracts reflects this distinction, alongside risks of triggering reciprocal actions by other nuclear states and broader NPT tensions. No verifiable U.S. explosive test has occurred through September 2026, with scheduled diplomatic summits and verification talks serving as near-term watchpoints.