**Recent US-Iran diplomacy centers on a June 2026 memorandum of understanding that outlined down-blending Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile on site under IAEA supervision as a minimum step toward a final deal, rather than requiring export or full surrender of the material.** The 60-day negotiation window expired without agreement after the MOU effectively collapsed in July 2026, with both sides suspending commitments. Iran’s pre-June 2025 stockpile included approximately 440 kg enriched to 60 percent, but its current size, location, and condition remain unverified following US and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities and Iran’s subsequent restrictions on IAEA access. Negotiations have not produced commitments to ship material abroad or fully relinquish it, and verification disputes persist into September 2026. Any future progress would require renewed talks, restored inspections, and resolution of baseline accounting issues to shift probabilities on a surrender timeline.