Vice President JD Vance reported progress in US-Iran negotiations on May 13, citing advances on uranium limits and de-escalation amid a fragile ceasefire following 2025 hostilities, while upholding President Trump's red line barring Tehran from nuclear weapons. Traders note Vance's direct involvement ended after April's 21-hour Islamabad talks hosted by Pakistan—which included Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf but yielded no deal on Strait of Hormuz reopening or reparations—with subsequent rounds led by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Vance met Qatar's prime minister on May 12 to discuss pathways forward, but no new Vance-Iran meeting is scheduled, reflecting backchannel momentum over high-level diplomacy and risks of breakdown from military alerts or sticking points like sanctions relief.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$105,935 Vol.
May 15, 2026
May 15
<1%
May 31
9%
June 30
28%
$105,935 Vol.
May 15
$52,513 Vol.
<1%
May 31
$46,445 Vol.
9%
June 30
$6,976 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Vice President JD Vance reported progress in US-Iran negotiations on May 13, citing advances on uranium limits and de-escalation amid a fragile ceasefire following 2025 hostilities, while upholding President Trump's red line barring Tehran from nuclear weapons. Traders note Vance's direct involvement ended after April's 21-hour Islamabad talks hosted by Pakistan—which included Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf but yielded no deal on Strait of Hormuz reopening or reparations—with subsequent rounds led by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Vance met Qatar's prime minister on May 12 to discuss pathways forward, but no new Vance-Iran meeting is scheduled, reflecting backchannel momentum over high-level diplomacy and risks of breakdown from military alerts or sticking points like sanctions relief.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$105,935End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Vice President JD Vance reported progress in US-Iran negotiations on May 13, citing advances on uranium limits and de-escalation amid a fragile ceasefire following 2025 hostilities, while upholding President Trump's red line barring Tehran from nuclear weapons. Traders note Vance's direct involvement ended after April's 21-hour Islamabad talks hosted by Pakistan—which included Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf but yielded no deal on Strait of Hormuz reopening or reparations—with subsequent rounds led by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Vance met Qatar's prime minister on May 12 to discuss pathways forward, but no new Vance-Iran meeting is scheduled, reflecting backchannel momentum over high-level diplomacy and risks of breakdown from military alerts or sticking points like sanctions relief.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$105,935End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vice President JD Vance reported progress in US-Iran negotiations on May 13, citing advances on uranium limits and de-escalation amid a fragile ceasefire following 2025 hostilities, while upholding President Trump's red line barring Tehran from nuclear weapons. Traders note Vance's direct involvement ended after April's 21-hour Islamabad talks hosted by Pakistan—which included Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf but yielded no deal on Strait of Hormuz reopening or reparations—with subsequent rounds led by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Vance met Qatar's prime minister on May 12 to discuss pathways forward, but no new Vance-Iran meeting is scheduled, reflecting backchannel momentum over high-level diplomacy and risks of breakdown from military alerts or sticking points like sanctions relief.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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