Trader consensus heavily favors no declaration of independence by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) from Iraq by December 31, at 90.5% implied probability, driven by the complete absence of recent official announcements, referendums, or momentum toward separation. In the past 30 days, KRG priorities have centered on economic woes like delayed public salaries highlighted in Human Rights Watch's 2026 Iraq report and stalled government formation, alongside US-brokered oil export extensions emphasizing cooperation with Baghdad. Echoing the 2017 independence referendum's backlash—which saw federal forces retake Kirkuk and impose sanctions—opposition from Iraq's central government, Turkey, and Iran creates formidable barriers. No upcoming votes or diplomatic shifts signal change, reinforcing interdependence over rupture.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
$52,539 Vol.
$52,539 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$52,539 Vol.
$52,539 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no declaration of independence by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) from Iraq by December 31, at 90.5% implied probability, driven by the complete absence of recent official announcements, referendums, or momentum toward separation. In the past 30 days, KRG priorities have centered on economic woes like delayed public salaries highlighted in Human Rights Watch's 2026 Iraq report and stalled government formation, alongside US-brokered oil export extensions emphasizing cooperation with Baghdad. Echoing the 2017 independence referendum's backlash—which saw federal forces retake Kirkuk and impose sanctions—opposition from Iraq's central government, Turkey, and Iran creates formidable barriers. No upcoming votes or diplomatic shifts signal change, reinforcing interdependence over rupture.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$52,539End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no declaration of independence by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) from Iraq by December 31, at 90.5% implied probability, driven by the complete absence of recent official announcements, referendums, or momentum toward separation. In the past 30 days, KRG priorities have centered on economic woes like delayed public salaries highlighted in Human Rights Watch's 2026 Iraq report and stalled government formation, alongside US-brokered oil export extensions emphasizing cooperation with Baghdad. Echoing the 2017 independence referendum's backlash—which saw federal forces retake Kirkuk and impose sanctions—opposition from Iraq's central government, Turkey, and Iran creates formidable barriers. No upcoming votes or diplomatic shifts signal change, reinforcing interdependence over rupture.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$52,539End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no declaration of independence by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) from Iraq by December 31, at 90.5% implied probability, driven by the complete absence of recent official announcements, referendums, or momentum toward separation. In the past 30 days, KRG priorities have centered on economic woes like delayed public salaries highlighted in Human Rights Watch's 2026 Iraq report and stalled government formation, alongside US-brokered oil export extensions emphasizing cooperation with Baghdad. Echoing the 2017 independence referendum's backlash—which saw federal forces retake Kirkuk and impose sanctions—opposition from Iraq's central government, Turkey, and Iran creates formidable barriers. No upcoming votes or diplomatic shifts signal change, reinforcing interdependence over rupture.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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