Tensions in U.S. diplomatic relations, particularly with South Africa, have produced repeated demarches against Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III through September 2026 over policy disputes on land reform, farm security, and related issues, prompting some local calls for a persona non grata declaration. Similar frictions have appeared in other bilateral ties, yet no country has moved to expel a sitting U.S. ambassador in the past month. The U.S. has itself ordered departures of foreign diplomats, including Iranians after the UN General Assembly, underscoring reciprocal but contained actions. These patterns of reprimands without escalation, alongside the absence of acute new crises, align with trader consensus that the probability of any expulsion by December 31 remains low.