Diplomatic frictions involving the United States have remained contained short of ambassador expulsions through early October 2026. South Africa has summoned the U.S. envoy multiple times over policy disputes, while tensions with Iran produced U.S. expulsions of lower-level diplomats rather than reciprocal actions against American representatives. Brazil and other partners have seen visa actions and recalls, yet no foreign government has moved to expel sitting U.S. ambassadors. With only weeks remaining before year-end and no scheduled escalations or new crises pointing to such a step, traders assign an 86% implied probability that no country will take this measure by December 31.