Traders assign a 74.5% probability to no UN Security Council resolution endorsing a final U.S.-Iran deal by year-end, reflecting the fragile status of ongoing negotiations. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding outlined a 60-day window (extendable) for talks on sanctions relief, the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, with any comprehensive agreement to receive UNSC endorsement. As of early August 2026, however, discussions remain focused on narrower issues like Hormuz navigation, with U.S. officials describing progress as incomplete and warning of limited further opportunities amid threats of renewed pressure. The Council remains divided on Iran’s nuclear file following prior snapback actions and recent hostilities, complicating the path to consensus on a binding resolution. Historical patterns of stalled talks and the complexity of aligning P5+1 positions further support the current trader consensus on timeline risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertUNSC-Resolution zur Billigung des endgültigen US-Iran-Deals bis zum 31. Dezember?
UNSC-Resolution zur Billigung des endgültigen US-Iran-Deals bis zum 31. Dezember?
Ja
26% Chance
$135,416 Vol.
$135,416 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
26% Chance
$135,416 Vol.
$135,416 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Traders assign a 74.5% probability to no UN Security Council resolution endorsing a final U.S.-Iran deal by year-end, reflecting the fragile status of ongoing negotiations. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding outlined a 60-day window (extendable) for talks on sanctions relief, the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, with any comprehensive agreement to receive UNSC endorsement. As of early August 2026, however, discussions remain focused on narrower issues like Hormuz navigation, with U.S. officials describing progress as incomplete and warning of limited further opportunities amid threats of renewed pressure. The Council remains divided on Iran’s nuclear file following prior snapback actions and recent hostilities, complicating the path to consensus on a binding resolution. Historical patterns of stalled talks and the complexity of aligning P5+1 positions further support the current trader consensus on timeline risks.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ET
Volumen
$135,416Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Traders assign a 74.5% probability to no UN Security Council resolution endorsing a final U.S.-Iran deal by year-end, reflecting the fragile status of ongoing negotiations. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding outlined a 60-day window (extendable) for talks on sanctions relief, the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, with any comprehensive agreement to receive UNSC endorsement. As of early August 2026, however, discussions remain focused on narrower issues like Hormuz navigation, with U.S. officials describing progress as incomplete and warning of limited further opportunities amid threats of renewed pressure. The Council remains divided on Iran’s nuclear file following prior snapback actions and recent hostilities, complicating the path to consensus on a binding resolution. Historical patterns of stalled talks and the complexity of aligning P5+1 positions further support the current trader consensus on timeline risks.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$135,834Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 74.5% probability to no UN Security Council resolution endorsing a final U.S.-Iran deal by year-end, reflecting the fragile status of ongoing negotiations. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding outlined a 60-day window (extendable) for talks on sanctions relief, the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, with any comprehensive agreement to receive UNSC endorsement. As of early August 2026, however, discussions remain focused on narrower issues like Hormuz navigation, with U.S. officials describing progress as incomplete and warning of limited further opportunities amid threats of renewed pressure. The Council remains divided on Iran’s nuclear file following prior snapback actions and recent hostilities, complicating the path to consensus on a binding resolution. Historical patterns of stalled talks and the complexity of aligning P5+1 positions further support the current trader consensus on timeline risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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