**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and active naval blockade continue to suppress transits through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping weekly volumes well below historical norms of roughly 700–1,000 vessels.** As of August 9, 2026, the strait has been effectively closed or heavily restricted for 162 days amid resumed hostilities that began in July, with daily traffic recently reported at just 3–9 vessels according to Kpler and Windward data—far under the pre-disruption baseline of ~140 per day. Iranian forces have conducted attacks on vessels, issued threats against non-compliant routes, and advanced parliamentary proposals to ban U.S./Israeli-linked ships while imposing tolls, prompting widespread avoidance by commercial operators and reinforcing the U.S. blockade. These dynamics explain why the 25–49 vessel range holds the highest market-implied probability at 41%, with the sub-25 and 50–74 brackets tied at 22.5% each; higher buckets remain discounted given persistent risks and limited escorted or alternative routing. Oil prices have risen on supply concerns, underscoring the market’s pricing of constrained energy flows. No near-term de-escalation catalysts are evident ahead of the August 10–16 window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 10?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 10?
25-49 41%
<25 26%
50-74 20%
75-99 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
<25
23%
25-49
41%
50-74
22%
75-99
18%
100+
8%
25-49 41%
<25 26%
50-74 20%
75-99 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
<25
$65 Vol.
23%
25-49
$53 Vol.
41%
50-74
$61 Vol.
22%
75-99
$76 Vol.
18%
100+
$164 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and active naval blockade continue to suppress transits through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping weekly volumes well below historical norms of roughly 700–1,000 vessels.**
As of August 9, 2026, the strait has been effectively closed or heavily restricted for 162 days amid resumed hostilities that began in July, with daily traffic recently reported at just 3–9 vessels according to Kpler and Windward data—far under the pre-disruption baseline of ~140 per day. Iranian forces have conducted attacks on vessels, issued threats against non-compliant routes, and advanced parliamentary proposals to ban U.S./Israeli-linked ships while imposing tolls, prompting widespread avoidance by commercial operators and reinforcing the U.S. blockade.
These dynamics explain why the 25–49 vessel range holds the highest market-implied probability at 41%, with the sub-25 and 50–74 brackets tied at 22.5% each; higher buckets remain discounted given persistent risks and limited escorted or alternative routing. Oil prices have risen on supply concerns, underscoring the market’s pricing of constrained energy flows. No near-term de-escalation catalysts are evident ahead of the August 10–16 window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$418End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and active naval blockade continue to suppress transits through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping weekly volumes well below historical norms of roughly 700–1,000 vessels.**
As of August 9, 2026, the strait has been effectively closed or heavily restricted for 162 days amid resumed hostilities that began in July, with daily traffic recently reported at just 3–9 vessels according to Kpler and Windward data—far under the pre-disruption baseline of ~140 per day. Iranian forces have conducted attacks on vessels, issued threats against non-compliant routes, and advanced parliamentary proposals to ban U.S./Israeli-linked ships while imposing tolls, prompting widespread avoidance by commercial operators and reinforcing the U.S. blockade.
These dynamics explain why the 25–49 vessel range holds the highest market-implied probability at 41%, with the sub-25 and 50–74 brackets tied at 22.5% each; higher buckets remain discounted given persistent risks and limited escorted or alternative routing. Oil prices have risen on supply concerns, underscoring the market’s pricing of constrained energy flows. No near-term de-escalation catalysts are evident ahead of the August 10–16 window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$418End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and active naval blockade continue to suppress transits through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping weekly volumes well below historical norms of roughly 700–1,000 vessels.** As of August 9, 2026, the strait has been effectively closed or heavily restricted for 162 days amid resumed hostilities that began in July, with daily traffic recently reported at just 3–9 vessels according to Kpler and Windward data—far under the pre-disruption baseline of ~140 per day. Iranian forces have conducted attacks on vessels, issued threats against non-compliant routes, and advanced parliamentary proposals to ban U.S./Israeli-linked ships while imposing tolls, prompting widespread avoidance by commercial operators and reinforcing the U.S. blockade. These dynamics explain why the 25–49 vessel range holds the highest market-implied probability at 41%, with the sub-25 and 50–74 brackets tied at 22.5% each; higher buckets remain discounted given persistent risks and limited escorted or alternative routing. Oil prices have risen on supply concerns, underscoring the market’s pricing of constrained energy flows. No near-term de-escalation catalysts are evident ahead of the August 10–16 window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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