Farsi Island remains a restricted Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy outpost in the central Persian Gulf under firm Iranian control amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. airstrikes have targeted military infrastructure on nearby islands including Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to disrupt threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes and mining activity, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. Iran continues to exercise primary governmental and military authority over its Gulf islands, with recent IRGC statements affirming naval monitoring from Farsi and no verified developments indicating imminent handover to another state or force. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of control by late September or early October stay very low, reflecting the challenges of rapid territorial shifts through airstrikes and sanctions alone.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$198,173 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
<1%
$198,173 Vol.
September 30
$20,903 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island remains a restricted Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy outpost in the central Persian Gulf under firm Iranian control amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. airstrikes have targeted military infrastructure on nearby islands including Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to disrupt threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes and mining activity, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. Iran continues to exercise primary governmental and military authority over its Gulf islands, with recent IRGC statements affirming naval monitoring from Farsi and no verified developments indicating imminent handover to another state or force. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of control by late September or early October stay very low, reflecting the challenges of rapid territorial shifts through airstrikes and sanctions alone.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$198,173End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island remains a restricted Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy outpost in the central Persian Gulf under firm Iranian control amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. airstrikes have targeted military infrastructure on nearby islands including Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to disrupt threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes and mining activity, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. Iran continues to exercise primary governmental and military authority over its Gulf islands, with recent IRGC statements affirming naval monitoring from Farsi and no verified developments indicating imminent handover to another state or force. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of control by late September or early October stay very low, reflecting the challenges of rapid territorial shifts through airstrikes and sanctions alone.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$198,173End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Farsi Island remains a restricted Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy outpost in the central Persian Gulf under firm Iranian control amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. airstrikes have targeted military infrastructure on nearby islands including Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to disrupt threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes and mining activity, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. Iran continues to exercise primary governmental and military authority over its Gulf islands, with recent IRGC statements affirming naval monitoring from Farsi and no verified developments indicating imminent handover to another state or force. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of control by late September or early October stay very low, reflecting the challenges of rapid territorial shifts through airstrikes and sanctions alone.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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